Yeah, or another way to look at it…
by revressbo (2022-11-27 17:15:52)
Edited on 2022-11-27 17:16:44

In reply to: Yes 8+7+3 although unlikely is better than 7+7+3+OT  posted by SixShutouts66

Post Reply Return to Rock's House

(With the assumption, you will score exactly 1 more TD and 1 more FG and they won’t score again, which is fair given there were only a few minutes left):

If you go for two after the first TD, you have a 50% chance of winning the game in regulation, a 25% chance of going to OT and a 25% chance of losing in regulation. That equates to a 62.5% chance of winning.

If you kick the extra point, you have a 100% chance of going to OT. That equates to a 50% chance of winning.

Obviously the above assumes an extra point is 100% successful, a 2-point is 50% chance of success and OT is 50% chance of winning and none of those percentages are exactly that, but that’s the principle in a nutshell.

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