Latter part of revressbo's link has more details

It uses an NFL average of 94% successful conversion kicks and 48% two-point conversion successes and 50% win rate in overtime. You can change these success rates. The logic assumes you score the next TD without the opposition scoring.

Here are your four cases for attempting a kick first (it covers the bad choice of successful kick followed by 2 point attempt later on)

1. Successful kick, followed by successful kick = OT would occur 88% (.94*.94)
2. Successful kick, missed kick = loss, 6%
3. Missed kick, successful 2 point try = OT = 3% occurrence
4. Missed kick, missed 2 point try = loss = 3%

With these success rates, the NFL two kick scheme will lead OT 91% of the time and victory about 45% of the time.

The analytics guys have these 4 cases:

1. Successful 2 point, successful kick = win, 45%
2. Successful 2 point, missed kick = OT 3%
3 Unsuccessful 3 point, successful 2 point = OT 25%
4. Unsuccessful 2 point tries both times = loss 27%
You'll have outright wins almost half the time and win half of the games going to overtime for an expected win percentage of 59% (45 + 3/2 + 25/2)

The big However is that no coach wants to face his team, the press, the fans or the owners by choosing to go for 2 and losing because of it.