Re: Your first paragraph

That’s true, but either way, it’s 50% if you kick the extra point after the first TD (whether it’s because you kick the XP after the second TD also to go to OT or because you go for it after the second TD). It’s 62.5% if you go for it after the first TD.

In general, I think analytics would often indicate to go for a 2-point conversion in more 4th quarter situations than people would realize. Of course, you should basically never go for two when you’re up 11 (2014 Northwestern) but that didn’t stop a former certain coach from doing it…