If we normalized to adjust for defensive scores, I'd guess

the effective scoring offense would be closer to the 29th ranking for Total Offense. Because it was 47th in red zone scoring percentage and 16th in red zone TD percentage. (Why there isn't a readily accessible stat for scoring offense that removes non-offensive scores is beyond me. Another stat that adjusts for field position advantages created by defense would also be nice.) ND's defense was definitely notably better than average at creating scores and likely also better than average at creating short-field opportunities conducive to scoring. So 29thish is probably a good benchmark for where our offense actually stood last year and, thus, how progress should be measured this year.

I know you're always wearing your rose-tinted glasses, but it's hard to evaluate where we'll be this year. I would guess that if the talent were the same, we would have a more effective offense than last year, as I'll credit the idea that Denbrock has matured since he was generally not very good as the OC at ND. However, while RB should still be strong, our OL losses will probably be noticed. And our current strengths don't necessarily suit how Denbrock achieved success the past two years.

Nevertheless, assuming a strong OL performance, it'd be reasonable to have concerns that the in-over-his-head OC from last year could conceivably take what is still a strong stable of running backs and OL and actually produce a better scoring offense (defense-adjusted of course) in 2024 than would our current OC who will not have an elite athlete at QB and mature early round picks catching balls from him. If one took that position, he'd probably note that Denbrock was responsible for the 40th best scoring offense in 2014 (and 47th best TD percentage red zone offense) and (if all the homers are to be believed) 34th best scoring offense in 2015 (and whopping 79th best TD percentage red zone offense in 2015 despite a pretty balanced and talented attack). To say nothing of the 53rd best scoring offense in 2016 (and 55th best red zone TD percentage) when homers claim he was hamstrung.