If it's taken in the aggregate by total yards, yes.

If it's taken in the aggregate by total yards, yes.
by tdiddy07 (2024-04-26 08:16:08)
Edited on 2024-04-26 08:54:46

In reply to: % of available yards posted by KeoughCharles05

But using it to call a 12-yard TD drive an unqualified success with predictive value for future scoring success simply because 100 percent of available yards on the drive were gained is not helpful. If that 12/12 is aggregated with a 35/70 drive and taken to show a 47/82 yards gained percentage, that has some value in isolating independent offensive value in a total yards context. But because total yards ignores the ability to score in the red zone, I find it less valuable as a go-to stat than scoring offense--so long as proper adjustments can be made to scoring offense to isolate offensive productivity into a predictive measure. The Kelly offensive tenure (including under Denbrock) consistently underperformed in scoring offense compared to total yards gained because red zone productivity of its candy-assed scheme ranged from mediocre to poor.

I like the concept of the SP+ comparing actual points scored v. expected points scored for an average team that takes into account the strength of defenses played. But I'm not totally clear on the full methodology. I would just make sure that the stat considers both the strengths of defenses played PLUS the expected point value of an average team based on each season's starting field position and compare to actual points scored from the starting position. I would find that more useful than a standalone % of available yards because it bakes in red zone efficiency translating to actual scoring.