Luke Fickell's coaching job options...
by Irisharab (2021-11-17 09:39:56)

A few weeks ago, I read somewhere (maybe on NDNation) that Fickell is very happy at Cincinnati, and that he would only leave for the head coaching jobs at Ohio State or Notre Dame.

Let's say, for purposes of this post, that Fickell's ultimate goal is to become the head coach at ND or OSU, but that he is open to the idea of coaching somewhere else besides Cincinnati in the interim.

Unless there is some sort of scandal or personal emergency involving Kelly or Ryan Day, chances are that neither coaching job will open up for a few more years. The first opening will likely be at ND, when Kelly retires.

Knowing that neither job is likely to open up for at least another 3-4 years, would he be better off...

(a) Staying at Cincinnati, coaching a team that will be consistently among the best Group of 5 teams for the next few years, but may still be in the American Conference by the time Kelly retires (so more games against Tulane, Tulsa, USF, East Carolina).

or

(b) Try his hand at a Power 5 program that is a rebuilding project. If he's successful, he'll be sought after by elite college teams or NFL teams like Matt Rhule or Matt Campbell. If he isn't, his career could sputter like Justin Fuente's (and potentially Mike Norvell's).


Fickell is Einhorn, Einhorn is Fickell *
by faustfever  (2021-11-19 22:13:18)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


What is his attraction to ND?
by NDPittsburgh  (2021-11-17 21:23:10)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

His background is all OSU.. where did his ND affection come from?


Probably because he's a devout Catholic. *
by supernd  (2021-11-17 22:01:47)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


There's a lot of Catholics
by weirdo0521  (2021-11-18 14:59:10)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

who can't stand ND and everything about it.


I'm guessing many of them are in Michigan *
by Irish Warrior  (2021-11-18 16:48:08)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Many are in South Louisiana
by TerryD  (2021-11-18 18:44:49)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I know. I lived among them for very long time.

LSU fans, mostly. They want the ND campus to burn to the ground.


You left out (c)
by tf86  (2021-11-17 10:39:32)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Take a job other than his dream job, but pretty close geographically, that might open up as a result of the coaching carousel (e.g., Penn State, Michigan State) where he has a decent chance for success on a second-tier level.


Agreed because staying at Cincy is a mistake.
by cujays96  (2021-11-17 20:54:10)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

There is a limit to what he can achieve at Cincinnati: the conference, the facilities, and being choice number 2 for Ohio football players will always work against him. If his ultimate goals are a job with regular national championship potential and a big paycheck, he should leave as soon as possible. His prospects will never be better than they are right now


He previously turned down Michigan St.
by MobileIrish  (2021-11-17 13:04:59)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Is Penn State a better job than Michigan State? I guess it is. Maybe Fickell decides to stay Cincinnati until the OSU or ND jobs become available.

Chris Peterson stayed at Boise State for a number of years. At some point, he decided the timing was right and left for Washington.


PSU has more advantages and no disadvantages.
by tdiddy07  (2021-11-17 14:11:11)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

There's more in-state talent in Pennsylvania than Michigan. And PSU is the big brother in the state whereas MSU is the little brother on the recruiting trail. And there's a bigger gap between PSU and its little brother Pitt.

Yes, there's still out-of-state competition in Pa. from OSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, and non-regional powers. But that's no different from what MSU faces. There's a greater likelihood to batten down the hatches in Pa. as PSU than in Michigan as MSU.

That said, it's no USC or Florida or LSU.


Both are, fortunately, easy to spell *
by drmurray  (2021-11-17 14:52:49)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Was Petersen pushed out at Washington? *
by athlete37  (2021-11-17 14:00:46)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


No. But he saw the oncoming train of...
by Fresno Mike  (2021-11-17 14:12:01)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

...Oregon and Christobal's recruiting prowess. Winning at UW was a bit tougher than winning at Boise imo.


Peterson seems different than a lot of coaches.
by MobileIrish  (2021-11-17 15:17:56)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

He is an excellent coach, but I don’t think it consumes him the way it does other coaches.

I was surprised he took the UW job, but he performed at a high level. 2 PAC 12 titles with 1 CFP appearance.


Maybe I don't know what I'm talking about
by Twinkie the Kid  (2021-11-17 15:10:02)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

But I find it hard to believe who the Oregon coach is would have any bearing on his decision to retire.


I agree. My sources here is Seattle say the man was ...
by Rocksteady74  (2021-11-17 15:24:49)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

... burned out with coaching and wanted to step off the treadmill.


Cristobal and his recruiting...
by Fresno Mike  (2021-11-17 18:20:13)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

...helped Petersen make that decision. Boise was a way different gig than UW. Pressure magnified and Cristobal was not making it easy for Petersen to recruit. UW and Oregon are the bitterest of rivals. Kind of like ND-Michigan. No respect or love lost on either side.


Petersen is a borderline HOF coach
by Twinkie the Kid  (2021-11-17 21:34:08)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Cristobal was fired from FIU.

I don't doubt Cristobal made recruiting harder for Petersen, but I tend to think Petersen retired because he simply wanted to, regardless of Cristobal.


It'll be interesting to see what happens if USC
by mocopdx  (2021-11-17 14:13:57)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Hires a good recruiter. Much of Oregon's success the last few years in recruiting was due to USC being subpar in their recruiting. The PNW doesn't have a great talent base, and Oregon can't rely on the odd Texas or DC area stud to want to head west. If USC hires a guy who locks down California, then Oregon might be back to classes in the top 20/30 instead of top 10.


They just need to find another Will Lyles *
by knutesteen  (2021-11-17 14:47:24)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


No. God, no. *
by irishdemon  (2021-11-17 14:02:16)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


I couldn’t remember. Especially in hindsight that would
by athlete37  (2021-11-17 15:29:04)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

appear to have been a severe mistake on Washington’s part.


At this point in time, I don’t give a damn about Fickell. *
by BeastOfBourbon  (2021-11-17 10:38:05)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Frankly, you left out the quite frankly part. *
by SWPaDem  (2021-11-17 12:28:10)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


He gets the Fickell Finger of Fate award *
by notra_dahm  (2021-11-17 13:52:43)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


The key for him if he stays at UC
by TWO  (2021-11-17 10:27:06)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

will be consistency. We've seen more than a few coaches who have a special group of players and have a season or two of great success but when those player(s) leave the next bunch up is more like the traditional players that the school gets and they return to the norm.

That's why for coaches at schools like Cincy that they need to strike while the iron is hot. If he stays and the next 2 or 3 years are 3 or 4 loss seasons the opportunities decline.

Just look at Matt Campbell at Iowa State, a hot coach whose star is not quite so shiny right now. Good season but not a great season as expected.


Consistency? He's already proven that.
by Freight Train  (2021-11-17 13:16:22)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Fickell is working on his 3rd 11 win season in the last 4, and he only achieved 9-1 last year due to the COVID-shortened season. He was 9-0 going into the bowl game against Georgia, which they barely lost. He's not anything like Matt Campbell.

He's already proven his consistency. He has nothing left to prove at UC to anyone. He's winning consistently with 3 star athletes that top half Big 10 teams and ND have passed on.


His son is a freshman on the Cincy team, and his daughter
by Tex Francisco  (2021-11-17 09:57:58)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

is a junior in high school at a Catholic school, which is important to him. He has twins starting high school next year, presumably at Moeller or St. X. I suspect he'll eventually leave Cincinnati but will be very selective as to when and where.


Exactly right. It's well-known here in Cincy
by Freight Train  (2021-11-17 12:48:15)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

that he's only been interested in top tier programs in top tier conferences and only in the Midwest. That leaves only ND, UM and OSU as destinations. He's already turned down MSU and while I think Penn State might be attractive and close enough, I do think the more likely destinations would be USC and LSU if he's going to bolt.

USC's AD is the former UC AD and I think LSU will go after him hard. They just went after Freeman last year.


Cincy is in the Big 12 soon. Contract signed. *
by dillon301  (2021-11-17 09:54:19)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Yes, but the actual transition won't happen until 2023-2025
by Irisharab  (2021-11-17 12:09:34)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I remember reading that Texas and Oklahoma are still under contract with the Big XII until the end of the 2024-2025 school year, meaning that their first season in the SEC would be Fall 2025. Of course, it's possible that they could leave sooner, but who knows at this point.

If Cincinnati, et al. do not join the Big XII until after Tx and OK leave, that means that Cincinnati has as many as three more seasons in the AAC. Certainly possible that Kelly could retire at ND before Cincinnati plays a single game as a member of the Big XII conference.


The Big 12 should lose "Power" status once OU, Texas depart.
by MrE  (2021-11-17 10:09:32)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

And join the Group of 5.


The ACC better worry about Clemson and FSU
by ACross  (2021-11-17 13:18:09)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Leaving. As it is, whe n those 2 teams are down, the ACC is horrific


They may move, but it would be a dumb decision
by NDAtty  (2021-11-17 15:51:36)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

It would be much harder for Clemson to sustain elite success or for FSU to rise back to an elite level in the SEC.

Clemson has been elite for less than a decade. With the recruiting advantage they have versus the rest of the ACC right now, they're set to be competitive for the conference championship every year.

FSU is down, but give them a good coach and a few years they are back on top quickly as well. In the ACC. Both teams are going to have great opportunities in the ACC to stay on top or rebuild, as the case may be.

Move to the SEC and become Nebraska. Not worth the extra TV money. Certainly not worth the extra TV money if I'm a fan of one of those schools.


They should rename it the AC/DC conference *
by drmurray  (2021-11-17 11:59:38)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


There's a very real possibility the new Big 12 will be
by Tex Francisco  (2021-11-17 10:18:55)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

better than the ACC, and potentially a lot better in the upper middle part of the conference. Obviously a lot of this will depend on whether Fickell, Dave Aranda, and Matt Campbell stick around, and on how the new hires at Texas Tech, and TCU pan out. The ACC really needs for Va Tech, and presumably Miami when the time comes, to make good hires and for Mike Norvell to get things turned around at FSU in order for the ACC to be even respectable. I thought Scott Satterfield was a good hire for Louisville, but his results have been pretty mediocre so far.


I believe the ACC will be much stronger.
by MrE  (2021-11-17 10:34:30)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

There is not a single Big 12 (future version) team in the top 30 talent-wise.

TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State are the lead dogs, and are only top 30-40. I think it's reasonable to argue those 3 programs will drop off as recruits won't want to play in a conference that lacks any luster or "anchor" teams like Texas or Oklahoma.

It'll be a merger between Top 30-60 programs (Big 12) and Top 45-75 programs (AAC/BYU), talent-wise.

4-year recruiting rankings averages (2017-2021):

ACC Clemson 6.0
ACC Miami 15.5
ACC Florida State 18.3
ACC UNC 19.3
Big 12 TCU 33.3
ACC NC State 34.0
Big 12 Oklahoma St. 35.5
Big 12 Baylor 40.0
Big 12 West Virginia 40.0
ACC Georgia Tech 42.3
ACC Virginia Tech 42.3
ACC Pitt 44.3
ACC Virginia 44.8
ACC Louisville 45.0
Big 12 Cincinnati 50.3
Big 12 Iowa State 51.8
ACC Syracuse 55.8
ACC Duke 58.3
ACC BC 58.5
Big 12 Kansas State 59.3
ACC Wake Forest 62.3
Big 12 Kansas 62.3
Big 12 UCF 63.8
Big 12 Texas Tech 64.0
Big 12 Memphis 65.5
Big 12 BYU 78.5





Well, they still have some decent teams, but really....
by Marine Domer  (2021-11-17 10:14:47)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

after realignment there are going to be about 2 1/2 conferences left. SEC, Big Ten, and PAC whatever they are now.


Pac 12 is no great shakes.
by GoldCoastIrish  (2021-11-17 11:35:07)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I have no clue what's going to happen with Southern Cal, but outside of Oregon, none of those teams are worth much. Maybe ASU.


It's also about upside potential
by Tex Francisco  (2021-11-17 12:19:54)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

The new Big 12 may be as good as the Pac 12 and ACC right now, but no new Big 12 team has a ceiling as high as Oregon, Clemson, USC, FSU, UW, or Miami, and I'd say Pitt, Va. Tech, NC State, Louisville, UCLA, ASU, and Arizona are far more likely to put together an extended run of excellence than our any new Big 12 team.


They were my half conference. *
by Marine Domer  (2021-11-17 11:36:31)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


definitely above the ACC, and well above the future Big 12.
by MrE  (2021-11-17 11:44:09)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

but definitely a cut below Big 10 and SEC, so you slot them correctly.

Pac 12 recruiting rankings averages last 4 years:

Oregon 9.3
Washington 22.8
USC 23.8
Stanford 30.3
UCLA 30.8
Utah 34.3
Arizona State 34.8
Cal 38.0
Colorado 49.0
Washington St. 57.3
Arizona 61.0
Oregon State 71.0