His background is all OSU.. where did his ND affection come from?
who can't stand ND and everything about it.
I know. I lived among them for very long time.
LSU fans, mostly. They want the ND campus to burn to the ground.
Take a job other than his dream job, but pretty close geographically, that might open up as a result of the coaching carousel (e.g., Penn State, Michigan State) where he has a decent chance for success on a second-tier level.
There is a limit to what he can achieve at Cincinnati: the conference, the facilities, and being choice number 2 for Ohio football players will always work against him. If his ultimate goals are a job with regular national championship potential and a big paycheck, he should leave as soon as possible. His prospects will never be better than they are right now
Is Penn State a better job than Michigan State? I guess it is. Maybe Fickell decides to stay Cincinnati until the OSU or ND jobs become available.
Chris Peterson stayed at Boise State for a number of years. At some point, he decided the timing was right and left for Washington.
There's more in-state talent in Pennsylvania than Michigan. And PSU is the big brother in the state whereas MSU is the little brother on the recruiting trail. And there's a bigger gap between PSU and its little brother Pitt.
Yes, there's still out-of-state competition in Pa. from OSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, and non-regional powers. But that's no different from what MSU faces. There's a greater likelihood to batten down the hatches in Pa. as PSU than in Michigan as MSU.
That said, it's no USC or Florida or LSU.
...Oregon and Christobal's recruiting prowess. Winning at UW was a bit tougher than winning at Boise imo.
He is an excellent coach, but I don’t think it consumes him the way it does other coaches.
I was surprised he took the UW job, but he performed at a high level. 2 PAC 12 titles with 1 CFP appearance.
But I find it hard to believe who the Oregon coach is would have any bearing on his decision to retire.
... burned out with coaching and wanted to step off the treadmill.
...helped Petersen make that decision. Boise was a way different gig than UW. Pressure magnified and Cristobal was not making it easy for Petersen to recruit. UW and Oregon are the bitterest of rivals. Kind of like ND-Michigan. No respect or love lost on either side.
Cristobal was fired from FIU.
I don't doubt Cristobal made recruiting harder for Petersen, but I tend to think Petersen retired because he simply wanted to, regardless of Cristobal.
Hires a good recruiter. Much of Oregon's success the last few years in recruiting was due to USC being subpar in their recruiting. The PNW doesn't have a great talent base, and Oregon can't rely on the odd Texas or DC area stud to want to head west. If USC hires a guy who locks down California, then Oregon might be back to classes in the top 20/30 instead of top 10.
appear to have been a severe mistake on Washington’s part.
will be consistency. We've seen more than a few coaches who have a special group of players and have a season or two of great success but when those player(s) leave the next bunch up is more like the traditional players that the school gets and they return to the norm.
That's why for coaches at schools like Cincy that they need to strike while the iron is hot. If he stays and the next 2 or 3 years are 3 or 4 loss seasons the opportunities decline.
Just look at Matt Campbell at Iowa State, a hot coach whose star is not quite so shiny right now. Good season but not a great season as expected.
Fickell is working on his 3rd 11 win season in the last 4, and he only achieved 9-1 last year due to the COVID-shortened season. He was 9-0 going into the bowl game against Georgia, which they barely lost. He's not anything like Matt Campbell.
He's already proven his consistency. He has nothing left to prove at UC to anyone. He's winning consistently with 3 star athletes that top half Big 10 teams and ND have passed on.
is a junior in high school at a Catholic school, which is important to him. He has twins starting high school next year, presumably at Moeller or St. X. I suspect he'll eventually leave Cincinnati but will be very selective as to when and where.
that he's only been interested in top tier programs in top tier conferences and only in the Midwest. That leaves only ND, UM and OSU as destinations. He's already turned down MSU and while I think Penn State might be attractive and close enough, I do think the more likely destinations would be USC and LSU if he's going to bolt.
USC's AD is the former UC AD and I think LSU will go after him hard. They just went after Freeman last year.
I remember reading that Texas and Oklahoma are still under contract with the Big XII until the end of the 2024-2025 school year, meaning that their first season in the SEC would be Fall 2025. Of course, it's possible that they could leave sooner, but who knows at this point.
If Cincinnati, et al. do not join the Big XII until after Tx and OK leave, that means that Cincinnati has as many as three more seasons in the AAC. Certainly possible that Kelly could retire at ND before Cincinnati plays a single game as a member of the Big XII conference.
And join the Group of 5.
Leaving. As it is, whe n those 2 teams are down, the ACC is horrific
It would be much harder for Clemson to sustain elite success or for FSU to rise back to an elite level in the SEC.
Clemson has been elite for less than a decade. With the recruiting advantage they have versus the rest of the ACC right now, they're set to be competitive for the conference championship every year.
FSU is down, but give them a good coach and a few years they are back on top quickly as well. In the ACC. Both teams are going to have great opportunities in the ACC to stay on top or rebuild, as the case may be.
Move to the SEC and become Nebraska. Not worth the extra TV money. Certainly not worth the extra TV money if I'm a fan of one of those schools.
better than the ACC, and potentially a lot better in the upper middle part of the conference. Obviously a lot of this will depend on whether Fickell, Dave Aranda, and Matt Campbell stick around, and on how the new hires at Texas Tech, and TCU pan out. The ACC really needs for Va Tech, and presumably Miami when the time comes, to make good hires and for Mike Norvell to get things turned around at FSU in order for the ACC to be even respectable. I thought Scott Satterfield was a good hire for Louisville, but his results have been pretty mediocre so far.
There is not a single Big 12 (future version) team in the top 30 talent-wise.
TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State are the lead dogs, and are only top 30-40. I think it's reasonable to argue those 3 programs will drop off as recruits won't want to play in a conference that lacks any luster or "anchor" teams like Texas or Oklahoma.
It'll be a merger between Top 30-60 programs (Big 12) and Top 45-75 programs (AAC/BYU), talent-wise.
4-year recruiting rankings averages (2017-2021):
ACC Clemson 6.0
ACC Miami 15.5
ACC Florida State 18.3
ACC UNC 19.3
Big 12 TCU 33.3
ACC NC State 34.0
Big 12 Oklahoma St. 35.5
Big 12 Baylor 40.0
Big 12 West Virginia 40.0
ACC Georgia Tech 42.3
ACC Virginia Tech 42.3
ACC Pitt 44.3
ACC Virginia 44.8
ACC Louisville 45.0
Big 12 Cincinnati 50.3
Big 12 Iowa State 51.8
ACC Syracuse 55.8
ACC Duke 58.3
ACC BC 58.5
Big 12 Kansas State 59.3
ACC Wake Forest 62.3
Big 12 Kansas 62.3
Big 12 UCF 63.8
Big 12 Texas Tech 64.0
Big 12 Memphis 65.5
Big 12 BYU 78.5
after realignment there are going to be about 2 1/2 conferences left. SEC, Big Ten, and PAC whatever they are now.
I have no clue what's going to happen with Southern Cal, but outside of Oregon, none of those teams are worth much. Maybe ASU.
The new Big 12 may be as good as the Pac 12 and ACC right now, but no new Big 12 team has a ceiling as high as Oregon, Clemson, USC, FSU, UW, or Miami, and I'd say Pitt, Va. Tech, NC State, Louisville, UCLA, ASU, and Arizona are far more likely to put together an extended run of excellence than our any new Big 12 team.
but definitely a cut below Big 10 and SEC, so you slot them correctly.
Pac 12 recruiting rankings averages last 4 years:
Oregon 9.3
Washington 22.8
USC 23.8
Stanford 30.3
UCLA 30.8
Utah 34.3
Arizona State 34.8
Cal 38.0
Colorado 49.0
Washington St. 57.3
Arizona 61.0
Oregon State 71.0