Oregon beats Utah this weekend and goes into the Pac 12 title game ranked #3, and then they lose that game (the reverse is more likely, but it's not totally improbable).

Cincinnati wins out (probable).

Ohio St beats either MSU or UM or both, preventing the scenario where UM and MSU both finish with 1 loss (probable).

Ole Miss loses @ Miss St (50/50, but may not be necessary).

Notre Dame wins out.


In that scenario, the playoffs teams will be UGA, Big 10 winner, Cincinnati, and either Alabama or the Big 12 winner.

After the Sugar Bowl takes its SEC team (whether that's Bama or the 3rd best team), the next best SEC team will have at least 3 losses and be ranked below Oregon.

After the Sugar Bowl takes its Big 12 team (whether that's the conference winner or the 2nd best team), the next best Big 12 team will have at least 2 losses and almost certainly be ranked below 2-loss Oregon.

The Rose Bowl will takes the 2nd best Big 10 team. The 3rd place team will be eligible for the Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

In that scenario, the 4 teams eligible to play in the Fiesta and Peach Bowls will be:

ACC Champ (automatic bid)
Notre Dame
3rd place Big 10 team
Oregon

It's hard to imagine another team leapfrogging Oregon in that scenario. Am I forgetting someone?

So if those are the 4 teams, the ACC champ would presumably go to the Peach Bowl, and Oregon would presumably go to the Fiesta Bowl. So then the decision would be either:

ND vs Oregon, and Big 10 vs ACC; or
ND vs ACC, and Oregon vs Big 10

If it comes to that, how would the decision get made? Does one of the bowls have "dibs" over the other, or is it made by the committee? If it's made by the committee then I would hope that they'd try to avoid pitting ND against an ACC team, but there's no guarantee of that.

There is a possibility that the #2 Big XII team is in the mix for an Access Bowl bid in that scenario. Granted, if there's a Big XII team in the CFP, that gets a little less likely, as at least one Big XII team from among Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor would have at least three losses. But if the Big XII misses the CFP, there's a possibility that you have all three of those teams with two losses apiece. Whoever wins the conference championship game gets the Sugar Bowl bid, but it's entirely possible that one of the other two winds up in an Access Bowl.

To go with your assumption and answer the question you posed, the attractiveness of a matchup is one of the factors which the Committee can take into consideration. And ND does play five games against the ACC in the regular season. OTOH, the individual ACC teams do not rotate through ND's schedule on a regular basis, and it's entirely possible that ND will go several (i.e., more than three consecutive) years without playing a particular ACC opponent.

Of the ACC teams still in contention for the conference title this season, ND played Virginia this season, so Virginia would be out as a potential opponent in a non-CFP NY6 bowl. ND also has played Clemson three times in the last three seasons, including twice last season, and is scheduled to play Clemson in each of the next two seasons. So Clemson also would be out as a prospective non-CFP NY6 bowl opponent this year, unless ND otherwise would have to play Cincinnati. OTOH, Pitt is a traditional rival who no longer plays ND annually, so perhaps the Committee would want that as a matchup.

With all of that said, if we were to assume that Oregon will split with Utah, I think there is a much better chance that Oregon would lose the true road game, then win at a neutral site with a Rose Bowl bid on the line, rather than vice versa. But who knows?