Being as realistic and objective as possible...
by Irisharab (2017-08-11 11:33:41)
Edited on 2017-08-11 12:09:16
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I think most of us would agree that the chances of this year's ND squad winning a National Championship or getting into the 4-team playoff are close to zero. I think many of us (perhaps not most of us) would agree that this year's team will, at a minimum, do better than 4-8.

With all that said...

A. In terms of regular season record, what do you think is the ceiling and the floor for this year's team?

B. Any other predictions about the quality of the product on the field?

My predictions:

A. No worse than 6-6 (assuming Wimbush is not seriously injured), but no better than 9-3.

B. Even though I don't think that this year's regular season record will be as good as that of the 2015 team, I think the overall quality of play will actually be better and more consistent this year. I want to believe that we can beat at least one of these three schools - Miami (FL), UNC, or Stanford, and a victory against any of those teams would be better than our best wins of 2015.

[Edited for lousy grammar.]


Floor: 5-7 Ceiling: 9-3
by Groundhog  (2017-08-12 10:46:35)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I think they will win a game they shouldn't, but will also lose a couple they have no business losing.

I see 7-5 with another period of waiting after the season to see if Kelly gets canned, only to have them announce he'll be back for 2018.


7-5 and 10-2. *
by Newt  (2017-08-11 20:56:49)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


I can't answer that until I see Wimbush play.
by Irishdemon  (2017-08-11 15:43:18)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Having said that, 4-8 of course is a possibility.

One thing about Brian Kelly's teams, save 2010, when it goes south, it goes south.


Ceiling is 8-4. Floor is 6-6. *
by Wolfetone  (2017-08-11 14:22:51)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Low floor, high ceiling
by gordonbombay  (2017-08-11 14:03:35)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I think it's within the realm of possibility that Wimbush is awesome, that Elko's changes take pretty well on defense, that we catch a couple of lucky in-game breaks, and that the schedule falls in such a way that we finish 11-1. I don't think that's remotely likely, but it's possible.

I also think it's possible some stupid screw-up costs us the Georgia game and that some combination of a hangover, bad luck and general stupidity that we've come to expect this decade costs us at least 1 of the following 2 games and the season goes completely belly-up, resulting in another 4-8. Again, not remotely likely but possible.

Given we seem to be stuck in eternal purgatory, I suspect we'll play really well at times, really crappy at others, not win any games against comparable/better talent, and finish 8-4, resulting in no real changes in the program.


4-8 to 7-5. *
by Cliff Claven  (2017-08-11 13:38:44)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Answer
by Vairish84  (2017-08-11 13:36:53)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Assuming Wimbush does not get hurt,

I think the ceiling is 10-2 and the floor is 6-6. I think the most likely outcome is 8-4.

I think the defense will play free, and look more consistent. They will resemble the post-BVG defense rather than the BVG one. If they can get a good rotation beyond Bonner and Tillery inside and beyond the Hayes Bros (I know they are not) at DE, and the safeties play closer to their recruiting rankings, I think the we will get close to the ceiling.

On O, if Wimbush is as good as advertised, I think we could see a special year on offense. The trick will be the WRs. If they run the routes and are where they need to be, we will have a good offense. If they are not, and I don't believe they were last year, other than St. Brown, even Tom Brady won't be able to create a passing game that can consistently beat a good defense.


"A special year on offense"
by dwjm3  (2017-08-11 13:42:39)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Kelly in seven years here hasn't generated a good offense...Why now do you think he will?


"Special" is another word for "Unusual".
by G.K.Chesterton  (2017-08-11 18:24:36)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I agree with the poster's thought process about the floor, the ceiling, and the expected outcome, which is why I will be surprised if Kelly is not back next year. The defense looks to be more rickety than the offense.


8 wins floor - 10 wins ceiling.
by JC  (2017-08-11 13:29:13)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

As for part B, and the reason for my relative optimism is that I truly believe that we were a poorly conditioned team last year. We had leads in 9 of 12 games, but couldn't put 60 minutes of football together. I think you will see that change so much so that you won't see a 1 point loss to Navy, blow a 17 point second half lead, let a shit team up off the mat, etc. I believe you will see better conditioning pay dividends on the field. We can't be much worse in terms of conditioning than last year.

I also believe we will beat Georgia, Kirby Smart has much to prove to me, but we will lose a game that we have no business losing, e.g., BC, Wake, Navy (we should NEVER lose to Navy).

Anything less than 10 wins with 2 competitive, 4th quarter losses plus a bowl win, will be a fail in my eyes.


I think the ND offense is going to be outstanding because of
by NDTwice  (2017-08-11 13:22:41)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

the talent, experience (except QB), depth, and the new offensive coordinator. I doubt if any team will hold ND to less that 20 points and that includes Georgia and NC State. Our defense should also be substantially improved now that we have a coach who teaches defense on the field and not in the classroom.

Consequently, the ceiling for me is eleven games. The floor is eight games.

Yea I know. Have a good laugh on me, but you did ask.


ask after the georgia game
by NDWahoo  (2017-08-11 13:09:41)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

If they get blown out, they will tailspin.
4-8 was not a fluke, and they could do it again.


No realistic and objective person thought his ceiling and
by rockmcd  (2017-08-11 13:01:33)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

floor were 12-0 and 4-8 prior to 2012 and 2016, respectively. To say that one of those was a fluke but not the other, I don't think that's very objective. As Mama Gump would say, he's like a box of chocolates, and it would be nice to have a coach that's more dependable.

If the offense is as good as 2015, and the defense and special teams are average, then there isn't a game on the schedule that they can't win. If the offense is average and the defense and special teams are shitty, then there isn't a game on the schedule that they can't lose.


All true. *
by Newt  (2017-08-11 21:00:17)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


5-7 and 8-4. *
by NDEE01  (2017-08-11 12:26:30)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


A) 3-9 to 9-3; B) 7-5, and much celebration from Jack
by someguy  (2017-08-11 12:25:24)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

about a 3 game win improvement.

Last year we had a QB who was a 2nd round NFL draft pick and we finished 4-8. Our QB this year will be first time starter, thus the lower floor than last year's record.


Considering Kelly will get out-coached in most games.
by jakam31  (2017-08-11 12:20:20)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

There might be 4 games where you can say ND will have the talent and coaching advantage: Temple, Wake Forest, Miami (OH), and Boston College.

The other 8 games there will be talent deficiencies, coaching deficiencies or a combination of the two. Considering Kelly's track record in such situations, I think 4-4 is the best one can hope for there.

8-4 is the ceiling and I don't think another 4-8 finish is outside the range of outcomes. If Wimbush goes down early on, it will get ugly.


Insufficient information.
by ndtnguy  (2017-08-11 12:12:58)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Try back later.


8-5. Ceiling: 9-4. Floor: 6-6.
by ThreeD  (2017-08-11 12:05:27)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Along these lines - What was the Probability Poll outcome? *
by sb  (2017-08-11 11:58:40)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


5-7, 10-2
by T_Allen  (2017-08-11 11:57:27)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

5-7 if the team leadership/culture sucks, injuries pile up and Kelly inserts himself too much. 10-2 if things start off on a roll, injuries are sparse, and Kelly stays out of the details.


Ochocinco. *
by Rfk  (2017-08-11 11:55:12)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


not advocating gambling
by irishrock  (2017-08-11 11:44:25)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

so board ops, please take this down if you feel like the post is in poor taste

The over/under for ND is 7.5. Who on this board doesn't think that is the perfect #?

We are an 8-4 or 7-5 team this year. I see losses to SC, Georgia, Stanford, and Miami...we will likely be underdogs to each of them. Throw in Michigan State, Navy, NC State, and North Carolina...I just see another loss coming out of those four. Maybe we beat Stanford or Miami.


I'll take the under. *
by Manor76  (2017-08-11 12:13:37)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Wrong board. *
by drdomer  (2017-08-11 11:39:22)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Ceiling: 9-3, Floor: 4-8
by hollownd  (2017-08-11 11:37:44)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

This team could be quite a bit better than last year, but I don't think they will be strong enough up front on defense to beat good power running teams like Georgia, USC, or Stanford. I also wouldn't be shocked if this team looks quite a bit like last year's team and drops close games @MSU, @UNC, NCState, Navy, @Miami in addition to the other three losses I mentioned.


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