Dumb guy stocks Q:Is it day traders and short-term investors
by rgvirish (2024-04-17 15:38:19)

that usually push the price of a "meme stock" up for a while after buying at rock bottom prices?

How long does that usually last? How long did the GameStop stuff go on?


I know a couple of successful day traders.
by IndianaIrish131131  (2024-04-18 00:10:02)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

To them, it’s a completely nameless algorithmic dissection of order flow. They measure success over 1000s of trades and track their success rates and yield per trade, which is in the single digits.

They tell me they actually like certain meme stocks because of the volatility on them. But their strategies don’t have anything to do with the people buying/selling them as meme stocks.


It lasts until the doesn't.
by EricCartman  (2024-04-17 15:45:49)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

There is no way to know which turd stock will pump. WSB is full of loss porn and ruined lives.

It is best to avoid this type of trade, and stick to investing over gambling.


"The market can stay irrational longer...
by DawsonMayes871  (2024-04-17 17:35:48)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

...than you can stay solvent." - Keynes

Plenty of people have been correct on specific stocks being worthless (see: tech bubble), but were completely blown up because their shorts ripped their faces off as the mania persisted longer than they could sustain their position. The meme stocks have done the same thing in more recent times. Playing with fire even if you're ultimately right.


VTSAX and Chill
by vermin05  (2024-04-17 16:27:28)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Ok my portfolio is slightly more complex than that, but not much. If my portfolio goes to zero, money isn’t going to be important anyways because civilization will have collapsed.


agree, a balanced mutual fund is the way *
by discNDav  (2024-04-17 17:07:37)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


That is exactly what my dad said about his military pension *
by SteveM  (2024-04-17 16:38:08)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


As a person who hates doing finances, I couldn't agree more
by ravenium  (2024-04-17 16:22:20)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I think where I get a sour taste in my mouth is where people single track stocks and brag about individual sales. Those people, IMO, are either lucky, fortunate, or benefit from insider trading. It's what I think of when I think of "pfft, stocks are legalized gambling!"

You can probably predict some of that, I'll bet - for example, I'd bet you $5 my former company's stock will go down 10-20 pts the day after an ESPP buy, and shoot up after quarterly results.

I just feed my investment guy according to an appropriate risk plan and smile/nod that it seems reasonable. Then I bitch to high heaven every March as he gives me a 1099-DIV that blows a hole in my tax return (how do people accommodate for these, btw? Just save up?)


As to your tax question
by Jojo98  (2024-04-17 17:05:42)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

If you isolate just dividends, you could make (or just save up) an estimated quarterly tax payment for the dividends you make each quarter (div times marginal tax rate) You can get more complicated and look at gains and losses, and any other pieces of your income (sched C, rental prop, k-1s) that don't have withholding, and balance that out to determine an estimated liability on a regular basis (quarterly?)


Jojo, you know I love your posts
by jt  (2024-04-17 22:45:51)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

but ravenium just said that he dislikes finances/doesn't understand that stuff well and you drop some schedule C/K1/rental property knowledge on him?

Next time just post, "get a road bike."

Just busting your chops Jojo. Your advice is sound.


Well, you could say
by Jojo98  (2024-04-18 09:42:28)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

That I didn't really drop any knowledge, I just used some fancy words to signal how much smarter I am than he is, as is par for the course in the BR (even more so on the political board.)


Truthfully you went easy on him
by jt  (2024-04-18 10:59:54)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

You could have advised him to set up an esop plan through an s Corp which would have allowed him to deduct the principal contributions while deferring and possibly eliminating taxes on the growth.


you bastard
by ravenium  (2024-04-18 10:24:15)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Ask me sometime about setting up a static port NAT through your firewall and we'll see who laughs!

(seriously though, thanks for at least making my brain jog a bit - I've always found money, politics, and religion to be the things i didn't discuss in polite company and NDN often suits all three!)


If you aren't required to pay quarterly
by ndtnguy  (2024-04-17 17:12:50)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Do the math but then dump the money in t-bills or a high-yield money market account designated just for that purpose.


Yup. In a world full of yield, never pay early. *
by EricCartman  (2024-04-17 17:16:55)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


I was right not to apply my refund, right?
by ndtnguy  (2024-04-17 20:46:51)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Total firm income was somehow lower last year, and because I paid the safe-harbor quarterly amounts, I wound up being owed a refund. But it looks like the IRS is paying over 7% on refunds, so it makes more sense to use money from my 4.9% savings account to pay the 1st quarter estimated taxes for this year than to apply the refund to it.

Did I miss something?


If the IRS is paying 7%, then sure.
by EricCartman  (2024-04-18 09:11:17)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

That appears to be on corporate overpayments, per the link below.

If that is the same for individuals, then yea I'd overpay and pick up the yield. Liquidity would be my only real concern here.


Thankfully outside of selling off RSUs, never had to
by ravenium  (2024-04-17 17:31:31)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

pay estimated. Well, I should say I should have and paid a small penalty, so uh, don't be me.

It sounds like planning to save up (via high yield - hey, CDs are going for around 5%!) for the estimated bill come April each year is the best route. I think some peoples' advisors sell to cover for them, but I don't think I'm that fancy.


you can get into some tax loss harvesting
by jt  (2024-04-17 22:47:21)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

but it's easier to just buy a road bike.