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Thursday, January 01, 2009

Notre Dame Talent Rising

posted by Scott Engler
(The Rock Report) - Notre Dame hasn't been this hot with recruits since Lou and Vinnie ran the show in the late 80s and early 90s.

Putting aside the on the field performance over the last two years and looking at the overall direction of the Notre Dame program, it hasn't been this healthy a "program" since Lou left.

No one's going to defend the coaching over the last two years. We were a game over .500 this year against a relatively easy schedule [edited] and averaged just 22 points a game. Our offensive line run blocks like weather vanes. As one program follower told me, it's not a zone blocking issue, it's that Charlie doesn't have an aggressive running scheme and we don't teach aggressive blocking techniques. When your offensive line is as bad as Notre Dame's has been the last three years, you've got a problem, but a fixable one and Notre Dame is probably going to replace Latina this year.


But stepping back and looking at the flood of young talent coming into South Bend, it's clear the program is on a sharp upward talent trajectory. Since Malloy left, Notre Dame has made structural changes to be able to compete. See the bottom of that V on the left? That's the crater Notre Dame's talent fell into in 2007. The graph is overall talent weighted to the junior, senior and 5th year classes. The 3 lines up with 2008, the 4 lines up with 2009 and the 5 lines up with 2010. As you can see we've climbed out of the pit of despair this year, but look at the next two years out. Notre Dame's overall weighted talent level will spike far beyond Weis's first two BCS teams, spiking above Texas and very close to Florida and USC.


In fact, Notre Dame's recruiting classes that comprise the current freshmen and sophomore classes have been ranked number one in the country overall, and yes that's ahead of USC and Florida. That Notre Dame has out recruited every school in the country over the last two years is testament to the foolishness of hair puller sportswriters who have written, among other things, that Notre Dame is irrelevant, that Notre Dame can't recruit in today's age or that Notre Dame doesn't capture the hearts of young players.


Notre Dame hasn't just captured their hearts, but their signatures. Judging by the reports from Mike Frank of Irish Eyes, Notre Dame will likely be competing for the mythical national recruiting championship again next year, which will put Notre Dame in the top 3 in overall recruiting over four years. That's a program wide talent turnaround which was desperately needed after three years of Willingham neglect (who has now decimated two programs in seven years.)


I read today where a sportswriter compared Notre Dame to Army from the 50s. One wonders if he has a editor. Yes Army is no longer a powerhouse, but that happens when you have physical restrictions and when playing pro football is not an option for your recruits (there's that requirement to actually be in the Army.) So, yes Army has fallen from the top, but that has zero to do with Notre Dame's situation. Of all the recent articles based in ignorance, this one may be the most far-fetched and most ill-researched. I don't link it here, because it's what we refer to as a hair puller article (an article written to get a reaction.)

All he had to do was Wikipedia Army to figure it out what led the demise of the service academies dominance, "the high academic entrance requirements, height and weight limits, and the military commitment required has reduced the overall competitiveness of both academies."



One would assume even a glorified blogger as access to google.

The argument is not just illogical based on it's faulty premise and lack of factual support, but also because it's in direct opposition to the current trends in football. Oklahoma, USC and Alabama have all had dramatic falls from their superpower status and recovered just fine. And over the last two years, Notre Dame has out recruited all of them (maybe a push with USC) as rated by Michael Walters who compiles these ratings, "Notre Dame was 1st over the past two years."


So how does Notre Dame do it?
  • Notre Dame is the lone national school in the country. It's recent bowl game against Hawaii broke records at the gate and on TV (and this was a mediocre Notre Dame team.
  • Notre Dame is the most popular team in the country.

Players aren't dumb, they can see all of the above and also see the talent level coming into South Bend.

In other words, if you're a recruit, you'll get more national exposure than any school, you'll graduate with a degree that means something across the country, your school will actually help you become a better student (and grow as a person) and you'll get your shot at the NFL. If the NFL doesn't work out, you'll get a leg up in the business world instead of becoming one of the thousands of used NCAA athletes who don't graduate or graduate with a "football degree" that gets you nowhere (see Michigan.) Recruits can easily check African-American graduation rates to see how they're valued by the school that's recruiting them.

Notre Dame will never become Army. That's an hack analogy floated by an immature reporter with little grasp of history, facts or underlying causes. It's a great way to get a few hits, but an exceedingly poor way to build a reputation of good reporting.

Of course, none of this is an endorsement of the last two years. Weis's performance is rightly in the spotlight, but from a talent perspective, Notre Dame hasn't been this healthy since Lou.

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20 Comments:

Blogger Ryan said...

One of the easier schedules in the country? How so? Sagarin has our SOS at 36, better than many of the teams in the top 25. I keep hearing this said about our schedule, and maybe it is weaker than typical ND schedules, but I don't see how its one of the easiest in the country when it statistically ranks as an above average schedule.

The rest of the article I very much agree with.

1/01/2009 07:55:00 PM  
Blogger mostro said...

good article. There is no doubt CW is bringing some talent into the program, unlike the former coach. We can talk about all the #1's classes we have, but we need to start seeing some results in the field. Only then we can compare our clasees to the USCs and UFs.

1/01/2009 08:25:00 PM  
Blogger KrisHull said...

mostro makes a good point, but don't underestimate the value of having good talent across all the classes to push each other in practice and for playing time. UF and USC have just that kind of a situation, and we will be in 2009 and 2010 where they are now, with four strong classes. Programs sustain excellence when the talent is stacked like cordwood across all the classes.

1/01/2009 09:22:00 PM  
Blogger mikev said...

Maybe just maybe Weis is the up and coming coach that is always discussed on these boards.

1/01/2009 10:23:00 PM  
Blogger JoeH0325 said...

I love "hockey stick" graphs. BTW, Notre Dame hockey is #1! Notre Dame will now have the football talent to be an NC contender with the right coaching focus. Charlie, teach fundamentals and ND will win big!

1/01/2009 11:11:00 PM  
Blogger JPD said...

This talk about ND being a healthy program because of the so-appointed top recruits we are getting is ridiculous. We are not even close to competing against the top teams in the country. We are a horribly coached team, and all the talent in the world will not help that. This false optimism and obvious blindness to the inadequate product on the field is ignorant and leads to an acceptance of mediocrity.

1/02/2009 08:16:00 AM  
Blogger GallyND said...

Woo JDP - easy or you will blow a gasket. There is no doubt that the talent pool has been elevated under Weis over that of Willingham. I believe that was the point of the article. However that said, now Weis needs to bring in assistant coaches that can develop the elevated talent pool. Something Weis has not been able to do. We need the "nasty" Weis promised. A few more lit candles would not hurt either...

1/02/2009 10:52:00 AM  
Blogger don said...

Funny how USC,OU, Alabama,LSU,Florida were all on the skids until they got the 'right coach'- add Holtz to the list. None needed more than a few seasons to show they had the Right-stuff'.
Starting with Leahy, no assistant coach has 'made-it' at ND-- why do we expect CW to be an exception? He has done a quality job of recruiting but the coaching gets an F grade. This squad had better talent then 11 opponents and lost 6. They are 10-17 in the past 27 games-they are a badly coached club with no 'schematic-advantage'. At least the cupboard is loaded for a primetime coach. CW? doubt it. Don

1/02/2009 01:23:00 PM  
Blogger The Rock said...

JDP -

You should reread, there's no optimism in the article.

If another coach were to take over the program he would find it dramatically healthier than the program Charlie took over.

That's not optimism, it's fact. The program is much healthier overall than when Willingham was here.

Nowhere do I extrapolate that into wins or optimism about the future.

1/02/2009 01:36:00 PM  
Blogger www.southbendblarney.com said...

Rock,

I love Irish football, but I am not so sure that Irish recruiting is close to the Holtz days. (I realize Rivals say it is.) I wonder if people that say Irish recruits are overrated are right.

Th media gets on my nerves, but I fear that cold weather programs (even traditional powers) are in real trouble. Time and time again, there appears to be a speed difference, and not necessarily in the "skill positions", but in the line positions and everywhere else.

ND does have great brand value, but most of it lies with those that are pushing 30 and older. The ND name does not mean near as much to kids 15-18 (recruiting target audience) and younger. We think kids still love ND because we do, but that is not the case. Unbiased 5 star recruits from warm weather (and talent rich states) only have academics as a reason to choose ND over their in state school, and I doubt that is a good enough reason to sway them (I find it hard to believe that many 17yr olds actually believe they will have to rely on a "real" job instead of an NFL career).

No, no matter what Rivals says, ND still does not appear to be getting enough athletes to truly compete for it all.

1/02/2009 05:07:00 PM  
Blogger Irish73 said...

After watching a bunch of clunky bowl games- especially the Sun Bowl in the middle of the afternoon and the Texas Bowl (which wasn't even on our cable system) and then the big blowout of Penn State by USC, its obvious some things have changed for the better! Choosing Hawaii was a great move- only game on that night, good vacation for the players, got the game over with early and made a good showing. Perfect for a 6-6 team! Better than going to the Sun, Texas or rubberbands.com bowl and being another flat game among many! And then a top notch program like JoePa's basically- for at least one half- looked just as inept as we did against USC! With good recruiting we get to where Pete Carroll is---an All-American fumbles the ball and you sit him down for the rest of that game to teach him a lesson. Couldn't do that yet with the Irish. We didn't have anyone to take his place. And I think Haywood is right- its a very complicated offense but talented and EXPERIENCED players will handle it. We'll get to the starting gate but you're hitting the nail on the head when you say we won't even have chance without a substantial schematic change in the offensive line.

1/02/2009 07:52:00 PM  
Blogger Scranton Dave said...

Great blog Rock. I especially like the shots at Michigan and Oklahoma and the hair puller sportswriters and Im sure the Mark Mays and Pat Fordes would try to make us think Notre Dame is irrelevant also. If that were try why do they revel so much when we lose? Anyway, our recruits are not overrated and people that say recruits that go to Notre Dame are rated higher to sell subscriptions to recruiting services ( Colin Cowherd) are ignorant. Anyway, it cannot be overstated how important it is to have quantity and quality in the upper classes and we didnt have that last year. Granted I agree we underachieved last year but if Charlie does some things, like fire Latina, there can be a big jump in 09 and maybe even greater things in 2010. Keep up the good work Rock!

1/03/2009 03:31:00 AM  
Blogger jim / Redondo Beach said...

...we all know that the offensive line has under-performed over the last two years...but how about the "four-star" tailbacks that have literally done nothing during that same time frame (873 carries; 2.67 ypc; 93 yards per game)...with the longest run from scrimmage coming on a fake punt by a linebacker...

...one wonders if you or I were given close to 900 tries with NO blockers against 11 defensive players, if we or anyone might be able to have say 9 runs (1%) of at least 10 yards before getting tackled... outperforming said ND running backs...and I haven't even gotten to the useless fullback position...

...to say that this tailback trio was/is "four-star" is just not the case...two and a half to three-star...maybe...

1/04/2009 02:10:00 PM  
Blogger Michael said...

true the RBs havent looked great but a FB the misses blocks and an OL that dosent blow defenders of the ball will make it hard for any RB to do much

1/04/2009 10:22:00 PM  
Blogger domer dad said...

I couldn't agree more notwithstanding the Syracuse and a few other stumbles I love the direction the program is heading The results will be there next year Go Irish

1/05/2009 10:59:00 AM  
Blogger Pilney35 said...

With all the misses in recruiting on the D-line I can't see how we are outrecruiting anybody. All the other teams have game changers on defense and we haven't for years.

When our leading tacker has come from the defensive backfield the past 3 years (Zibby, Zibby, McCarthy) something is wrong.

The linebackers are undersized and underperforming. Mo Crum is not a Sunday player. The D-line has not generated a consistent pass rush in years.

Where are the Bob Golics, Bob Crables,Michael Stonebreakers, Wes Pritchetts and Ned Bolcars of this generation?

We have not recruited well on defense in almost a decade.

1/07/2009 03:41:00 PM  
Blogger davetx03 said...

good article. i was talking on the phone yesterday with a broker and we just got to talking about football. he was a UT grad so we were talking about recruiting for a bit. he asked my opinion of Willingham because he said he liked the guy and seemed like a good guy and that Weis seemed stand-offish and wasn't personable and open. Well I had to give him the low down on Ty's recruiting work ethic. Don't get me wrong, Ty is a nice guy, just didn't do his job. He had one good season with Davie's players and after that it was downhill. He was very shocked when I told him about Brady Quinn and how he didn't heavily recruit him and that we got lucky because Quinn really wanted to come here. Also I told him that Weis gives at least 3 or 4interviews or press conferences/week during the season, he did his 60 minutes, he's been doing more guest speaking engagements and if you look at the recruiting he's doing, he has to be personable and likeable because obviously the kids and their parents like him. If you watch his pressers, he's cracking jokes with the reporters. I just don't get where this arrogant, stand-offish label is coming from. Well he responded saying that now he looks at it in a different light and that for most outsiders looking in, they see a very inaccurate and biased picture of ND because of all the bs reporting. I agree with the "hair pullers." It's sad when journalism takes a backseat when it comes to ethics. But hey i guess bad news is better than no news. It's just adding to the popularity of ND football.

On another note, it's nice to have the talent, but there's teams out there winning with lesser talent. Hopefully Weis will fix that part over the offseason.

1/09/2009 11:44:00 AM  
Blogger Pilney35 said...

The point about Quinn wanting to come to ND in spike of TY ignoring him was something I've been saying for years. No credit should have been given to TW for Quinn. Remember Shark rode the pine and Zibby was riding the bench and left ND in the summer after finding out he wouldn't start after clearly beating his competition in practice. TW was a nice guy who played favorites and was a lazy and poor coach with no work ethic (See UW's program for further proof).

ND's foray into political correctness in head coaching at the expense of the football program was inexcusable. He was not the best choice available.

Watching the NC Game last night I saw what ND used to do in big games-play well. Inspired teams playing inspired football was what ND used to stand for.

The leadership piece from Tebow proved the difference. It was plain to see he was the leader and was in charge of that team.

FL has a lot of youth so the youth thing is overblown as CW's excuse. Youth well-coached is a powerful force.


It's the poor coaching that CW has been overseeing and covering for from his staff that is the reason he cites youth so much. Loyalty should be to ND before it is to mediocre coaches on his staff. Good Coaching on CW's staff is in short supply.

Good recruiting on the D-line and good Coaching on the O-line is what is missing from this team.

To leave Latina in place would be to sink CW's ship for next year.

It's a shame since there's a good stockpile everywhere else on the team except the D-line which should make for a good season.

Kids have to be coached up. Just because you can buy the groceries (CW and recruiting) doesn't mean you can cook the meal.

1/09/2009 01:15:00 PM  
Blogger LIVEWIRE1981 said...

Can I please get an more in depth explanation of how you created the graph? I just want to understand what I am reading more. Thanks and GO IRISH!

2/08/2009 10:25:00 AM  

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