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Germany's chances of getting the 5th spot is over 90% by wcnitz

Might be 100% now that LFC and West Ham were eliminated.

found it:
Germany is in prime position to take the second spot. If Bayern, Dortmund, and Leverkusen combine to collect at least 4 points from here on out (winning 2 legs; winning 1 and drawing 2; drawing 4) then they'll clinch the second extra place.