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Bama has 0.01% shot too now that they are #3 by btd
They are not going to go from 3 to only 4 with two losses. They either win the SEC or they are out.
The Big 12 jumping us is very real. It is by far our top issue with getting in since we need a round robin of losses there. Still - we are #5 at worst 99% likely given 2 teams in front of us absolutely must lose - and Michigan is by far the most likely one of them to lose.
Reality is unless Cincy also loses, the doomsday scenario of being #4 happens. We either want to be #3 or #5.