Post Reply to Rock's House

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I know we had 1 loss, that's why I said it's not identical. by rockmcd

The similarity is that the committee will need to evaluate whether a team that lost a conference championship game should be leapfrogged by a team who didn't take on the risk of playing in a conference title game. I don't know what their decision will be, I'm just saying that's the question they'll need to ask.

There's not a ton of precedence to rely on in either direction. Last year's ND squad is the only team in the 7 year CFP history to lose its conference title game yet still remain in the final four. The only teams that have got in with one loss while eating cheeseburgers are:

2017 Bama - Instead of previously undefeated Wisconsin who had just lost the Big Ten title game. So a similar situation as 2020 ND/A&M, except that Wisconsin had navigated a weak schedule and lost to the only good team they played. This was a safe call because they're Bama and had won the national championship 2 years earlier and Wisconsin was not considered a legitimate contender to win it all.

2016 Ohio St - Instead of 2-loss Penn St who won the division in a tiebreaker based on their head-to-head win over OSU (their two losses were to Pitt and a blowout to Michigan). This was a safe call because they're OSU and had won the national championship 2 years earlier..

While there is no precedent for taking a 2-loss team (especially one that didn't win their conference title game), there is also no precedent for taking a non-participant of a conference title game that isn't considered a legitimate contender to win it all.