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I think you nailed it 100%. by revressbo
I agree that I think we are not in over a 2-loss Bama with a loss to Auburn (win the SEC and beat UGA) but in over a 2-loss Bama who doesn't win the SEC/beat UGA.
The only one that's up in the air is maybe we get in over a 1-loss Oklahoma or Ok State... but I'm definitely not certain of that and would say it's near 50/50 (I think it's more likely we'd get in over 1-loss Oklahoma than we would 1-loss Ok State).
But you've given a great breakdown and made it clear.
ETA: I also don't think it's fair that we'd go over a 1-loss UC when they beat us by double digits in our place, but think that's likely what would happen.
ETA #2: I think if your Group 2 happens, that's all we need, because I think Wisconsin winning the Big Ten would enhance our resume enough to keep us over Ok State/OU.