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Post being replied to

Some harsh playoff realities... by irishdemon

Even though ND continues to rise in the rankings, I think their chances are looking somewhat bleak as this thing crystalizes.

If Georgia, Ohio St, and Cincinnati win out, the final spot will come down to:

11-2 Alabama
11-1 Notre Dame
A 1 or 2-loss B12 Champion

I know many are adamant that a 2-loss Alabama team won't make it in over ND but that will be irrelevant if the B12 Champ has one loss because that team will get the final spot over both ND and Alabama. If the B12 Champ has two losses, that final spot will then come down to ND and Alabama.

Again - which way will the committee lean if it's between a pair of 11 win teams in 11-1 ND and 11-2 Alabama?

If Cincinnati loses that will open up another spot in the top four.

Again, if the B12 Champ has one loss, they'll get one spot alongside Georgia and Ohio St. Which means it will again come down to Alabama and Notre Dame for that final spot.

Considering our 11-1 is soft as sh*t, I'm not so confident we'd get in over Alabama. Others may disagree but I just don't know.

Now if Cincinnati loses and the B12 champ has two losses, that could render the playoffs:

Georgia
Ohio St.
Alabama
Notre Dame

I think the committee would stick 11-2 Alabama at #3 to avoid back-to-back-games with Georgia.

Having said all that, I know many would prefer The Fiesta Bowl vs. Michigan or Michigan St. anyway - and that's two more Cincinnati wins and two more Alabama wins away from being 100% a reality.