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Here's how I see it by tf86

I know I'm in the minority here on this, but I think Alabama has to win out to get into the CFP. If Georgia goes into the SEC championship game at 12-0, I think they're in the CFP regardless of the outcome of that game.

Oregon's SOS isn't much (if any) better than ND's, but they do have a quality win over Ohio State, albeit balanced out by a bad loss to Stanford. But they probably need to lose to miss the CFP.

I think Ohio State beats up the Big Ten the rest of the way and gets a CFP berth. That, of course, would knock both Michigan and Michigan State out of contention.

If one of those teams falters, I believe Cincinnati gets the first crack at the CFP. They beat us head-to-head, so nothing to complain about there.

After that, it's probably us, although there's a possibility that the Committee puts the Big XII champion ahead of us, especially if either Oklahoma or Oklahoma State beats the other twice in consecutive weeks.