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Post being replied to

I don't think it's possible for there not to be carnage by pmoose

among teams ahead of us:

- Georgia - Really easy remaining schedule including a game against Georgia Southern. Looks likely to make the SEC championship game.

- Alabama - Games vs. LSU, vs. Arkansas, and @Aurburn are not gimmes. They have a game against New Mexico State for good measure. Problem here is if they do make it through without losing, the result of the Georgia-Alabama SEC championship game may not matter - both teams could be taken unless it's a blowout one way or another.

- Michigan State - Games @Purdue, @Ohio State, and vs. PSU. If they manage to win the Big Ten East, their opponent in the championship game could be any of Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Iowa. I don't think they'll beat Ohio State.

- Oregon - Needs to play the next best 3 teams in the rankings in the PAC-12 North and the top team in the PAC-12 South, plus a championship game. That certainly doesn't look that easy (not the hardest schedule, but a game that could be lost if you don't play well every week).

- Ohio State - Games vs. Purdue, vs. Michigan State, and @Michigan. Michigan could make it interesting if Ohio State beats Michigan State then Michigan beats OSU. However, seems like the most likely is that either Michigan State or Ohio State wins the East and has an opponent that shouldn't be that tough from the West.

- Cincinnati - no tough games remaining, so I don't see any potential loss. However, their biggest problem is that they have no tough games remaining and their only notch on their resume is a win against ND.

- Michigan - Games @PSU and vs. Ohio State. They could make it interesting if they beat OSU, but that scenario wouldn't help us out.

- Oklahoma - Games @Baylor, vs. Iowa State, and @OK. State. This is a tough 3-game stretch, not to mention the Big XII championship game, which will probably be a rematch versus one of these 3. A loss puts the Big XII out of the playoffs IMO.

- Wake Forest - Games @UNC, vs. NC State, and @Clemson. Certainly not murderer's row, but tricky nonetheless. They'd also have to play the championship game against likely either Pitt or UVA.

Not that any of this means they must drop below us with a loss, but I see the following. At least 2 of the 3 Big Ten teams will have at least an additional loss and won't be in the top-4. Any single loss by Oregon, Oklahoma, and Wake Forest will essentially eliminate that conference from getting a bid. If Georgia and Alabama go the rest of the way without a loss and meet in the SEC championship game, I'm not quite sure what the committee would do if Georgia beats Alabama. Will it need to be a blowout for the committee to put Alabama outside the top-4? Will it even matter?

Now that I've thought through it, if I assume the ACC, Big XII, and PAC-12 are out, I still think ND is at best #5 behind Georgia, Alabama, the Big Ten champ, and Cincy. So while there can be (and will be IMO) carnage, it won't be enough.