This is not a vent board or any other kind of therapy. Before you hit the POST button, ask yourself if your contribution will add to the level of discussion going on.

Important notes on articles:

• Please do not copy entire articles into your post; rather, provide links to them.. We are now links-only for ALL Internet publications. If only a small portion of the article pertains to your post, Fair Use allows you to copy those one or two paragraphs, provided you cite the author's name and the publication for which he writes. Otherwise, put a link in the HTTP Link box.
• Even if you're copying a reference to an article, provide a link to the page from which the article came. We're trying to cut down on duplicate topics, and the posting process will check the link to your article to see if it's already being discussed on this board. At the very least, you'll save yourself some grief on the boards.
• If your first reaction after reading the article you're going to share is the author is uninformed / stupid / a jerk / all of the above, it's not worth sharing with anyone. Not every article needs to be discussed. The more the hair-pulling articles are discussed (e.g. ESPN Page 2), the more the authors will write hair-pulling articles.

Post being replied to

Here's how I see it by tf86

First off, I don't think the CFP Committee will do anywhere near as deep a dive as you did with respect to data. I honestly think for them that it's mostly a combination of number of losses + conference championships + the eyeball test.

Until this past weekend, I couldn't even wrap my brain around what it would take for ND to get into the CFP. I honestly thought that an Access Bowl bid was as good as it was gonna get (and even then, by no means guaranteed) this season. I think after last weekend, what we need to make the CFP came into sharper focus. Here's how I see it.

First, I conceded CFP bids to Georgia and Cincinnati. Georgia appears to be the most dominant team in college football this season by a substantial margin. And ND may need Cincinnati to qualify for the CFP in order to get in -- certainly, Cincinnati making the CFP helps ND out at a minimum. Also, Cincinnati has the easiest path remaining to the CFP of the teams still in contention. With those allowances, ND probably will need any four of the five following scenarios to make the CFP:

1. One Wake Forest loss;
2. One Oregon loss;
3. One Alabama loss;
4. Two Oklahoma losses (also one Oklahoma State loss in the event that Oklahoma State administers both Oklahoma losses);
5. Chaos in the Big Ten.

Now, for the analysis.

Wake Forest is a team that has snuck up on a lot of people. I think they're the one team on the list whose SOS is comparable (or perhaps even a little weaker) than ND's. I expect that with the first CFP rankings, Wake will probably be ranked below ND (although I could be wrong about that). But as the season progresses, if Wake remains undefeated we will start to hear about undefeated seasons, conference championships and 13th data points. However, I don't think Wake has the presence/historical success to merit being ahead of ND where both have the same number of losses. For that reason, I think ND only needs one Wake loss.

Oregon has the advantage of a weak Pac-12, and overall, their SOS isn't really a great deal tougher (if at all) than ND's. But if it were to come down to a decision between a one-loss Oregon team and a one-loss ND, I think Oregon may get more mileage out of their win over Ohio State than ND would get over a better loss (Cincinnati vs. unranked Stanford). Plus there's that whole thing about conference championships and 13th data points. So ND probably needs one more loss for Oregon to take care of them.

Alabama is Alabama, but as you said, nobody has ever made the CFP with two losses. So one more loss, even to Georgia in the SEC championship, would take care of them.

One certainly could make an argument that Oklahoma hasn't performed any better (if as well) in the CFP than Notre Dame has, so Oklahoma should receive no greater consideration than ND from the CFP Committee. However, the talking heads don't talk nearly as much about Oklahoma's CFP failures as they do about ND's, so at some point perception may have become reality. Oklahoma vs. ND is probably in a similar position to Oregon vs. ND, except that Oklahoma is presently undefeated. So I think Oklahoma needs two losses. Caveat: if Oklahoma loses twice to Oklahoma State, Oklahoma State could leapfrog ND in that scenario. So ND probably needs an Oklahoma State loss as well should Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma twice.

Which brings us to the Big Ten. ND's best-case scenario in the Big Ten would be for Wisconsin to get hot, go to the championship game and upset the East Division champ there. That would accomplish two things: it would eliminate the Big Ten East champ from contention for the CFP, and it would prop up ND's win over Wisconsin. The next best thing for ND would be for either Minnesota or Iowa to replace Wisconsin in that scenario. If neither of those things occur, the best-case scenario for ND is probably as follows:

Penn State beats both Michigan and Michigan State.
Ohio State beats Michigan State.
Michigan beats Ohio State.

That gives everyone in the Big Ten East at least two losses.