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Post being replied to

Not really. by revressbo

In 2015 they closed their final three regular season games with wins at 9-3 Baylor, over 10-2 TCU and @ 10-2 Oklahoma State. (All records at time of selection.)

In 2017 they won at Ohio State (and also beat 10-3 TCU twice, i.e., TCU had only 1 non-OU loss).

In 2019 they beat 11-2 Baylor twice, one of which was on the road (Baylor was 11-0 against teams not named Oklahoma).

I'm not here to debate whether Baylor or TCU or Oklahoma St were actually good, but those wins were much more highly-valued by the committee than any of ND's will be this year, assuming Wisconsin drops at least one more.

2018 is the one possible exception for Oklahoma, but the committee/rankings respected Texas a lot for their record actually was, plus OU's win over Texas in the Big 12 Championship made people think the October loss was a fluke. The only competition that year for the last slot was Ohio State, who had a win over Michigan... and not a ton else (plus lost by 29 to .500 Purdue and went to OT with Maryland). UGA, with 2 losses, including to Alabama in the SEC Championship, was de facto eliminated.

So it was sort of Oklahoma by default that year, and I'm not saying it can't be ND by default this year... but if we get into a "non-default" argument (e.g., with a 1-loss Oregon and/or a 1-loss Oklahoma), our lack of a really good win combined with some of the struggles could very well haunt us.