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That might be true if you're undefeated. by revressbo

Your 3rd paragraph (as far as chances of making the CFP with no wins over really good teams) is correct, and your 2nd paragraph (you can determine how good a team is even if they haven't beaten anyone good but have done it impressively) might be partially true (although I don't think it's certain/completely true) IF you're undefeated.

If you have a loss, and no quality wins (from an opponent, not margin standpoint), then I both question the legitimacy of how good you actually are and I think you can really, really put yourself in a tough spot to get in.

Of course, it's an art, not science, when evaluating/ranking teams, with multiple factors that are considered.