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If, hypothetically, we do make the CFP... by revressbo

we'd have a weaker resume than any of the 28 teams that made the CFP up to this point, particularly if you only focus on the 24 non-Covid playoff teams (i.e., ignore a 2020 6-0 Ohio State).

As of now, all of the teams we've defeated/will defeat for this hypothetical (when counting UVA as a loss to ND) have already notched 4+ losses, except for Wisconsin and Purdue, who each have three. Purdue has both MSU and OSU left so... yeah, they'll get there. Wisconsin's regular season finish is easier, but if they win out, they'll almost certainly represent the West in the Big Ten title game, and likely lose there.*

Only one CFP team has had no wins over a team with fewer than 4 losses at time of playoff selection (i.e., not including bowl games, but including conference championship games): 2019 Clemson. In fact, 26 of the 28 have had multiple such wins. While we'd join 2019 Clemson as the only CFP team with no wins over a 3-loss or better team, 2019 Clemson was undefeated (unlike us) and only had one close call victory (we've already had three, and that doesn't even include the UC loss).

Here's the full list. Asterisks for the shortened Covid season.

2019 Ohio State - 6
2016 Ohio State - 5
2019 LSU - 4
2017 Oklahoma - 4
2015 Alabama - 4
2015 Clemson - 4
2015 Michigan State - 4
2020 Alabama* - 3
2018 Clemson - 3
2017 Clemson - 3
2016 Clemson - 3
2015 Oklahoma - 3
2014 Florida State - 3
2014 Ohio State - 3
2014 Oregon - 3
2020 Clemson* - 2
2020 Notre Dame* - 2
2020 Ohio State* - 2
2019 Oklahoma - 2
2018 Alabama - 2
2018 Notre Dame - 2
2018 Oklahoma - 2
2017 Georgia - 2
2016 Alabama - 2
2016 Washington - 2
2014 Alabama - 2
2017 Alabama - 1
2019 Clemson - 0


(Interestingly, I'd argue up to this point that the CFP team with the weakest resume of the 28 entering the playoff would be... 2017 Alabama, who went on to win the whole thing. They only had one win over a team with 3 losses entering the playoff, and that was that LSU team that we beat in the Citrus Bowl to give them their 4th loss. Bama didn't even make the SEC Championship due to their loss to Auburn. Of course, you could likely make the argument that SEC West teams like 6-6 Ole Miss, 9-4 Miss St, 7-6 A&M, etc., are a bit better than their records would have them appear, due to their conference affiliation.)

This doesn't necessarily mean we wouldn't deserve to get in depending on how things shake out... but I think we'd need a lot of help. UGA, Cincinnati and the Big Ten Champs would likely and rightly be locked in. So you'd need Oregon and Wake Forest to lose once more (1 total for WF, 2 total for Oregon) and Oklahoma to lose twice probably. You'd also need UGA to beat Bama in the SECCG.

*This all goes out the window if Wisconsin runs the table; that then becomes a very good win, and they'd simultaneously knock the Big Ten out of the race, which should put us in good position at 11-1. But I think that's highly unlikely.

Ultimately, congrats to Swarbrick for scheduling his way to being in the conversation, yet again.