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I can get down with that. by potatohouse
I don't think we're saying terribly different things. Your #2 is kind of the same as mine (showing that one can compete given the opportunity probably runs more or less parallel to our faith in his ability to win a championship).
At year 11, given Kelly's recruiting record and related big game history, I don't have a lot of faith that he will get it done. At Year 8 of Mack Brown's run at Texas, I wouldn't have had much faith he could win either. At Year Anytime, I would've bet a second mortgage against Ed Orgeron raising a trophy.