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I think it is much simpler by NDAtty

It can vary by school and sport, but for ND football:

(1) Has the coach won one or more NC?

(2) If not, has the coach shown there is hope their team will win an NC?

Kelly isn't a bad coach, not at all. But, despite a long tenure, he hasn't achieved the only on-field goal for the program and I have almost no hope that he can. Is there any reason to believe a Kelly ND team can win not just 1, but 2 CFP games? Not that I can see.