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Absolutely it's academics by NYC_Domer

I think there are really two issues when it comes to academics.

The first is who could get through admissions. I think (and maybe the analysis backs this up) that that pool may still be relatively large.

The second issue (and the one I'd argue is much more operative) is who really wants to work that hard for three or four years? Being a world class athlete is g*ddamned challenging. So is being a world class student at a top university. Who in his or her right mind would opt to add the rigors of being an ND student with legitimate professional sports aspirations? That is especially true knowing that if you struggle in the classroom it could immediately end your "career" on the field. It takes a special kind of student-athlete to tackle those challenges simultaneously - someone with tons of character (RKG?).

Most 5-star kids aren't buying the "4 for 40" argument because college can't give them for the next 40 years what 5 years in the league can. To them it's just unnecessary stress/effort/risk. 2-star, 3-star, and 4-star kids have to think much more carefully about the value of the education and the "4 for 40" argument has a lot more merit.