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Honestly, a lot of it's luck. by revressbo

I don't think there's an "obstacle" at ND. ND is in a group of I'd estimate 15-20 schools that can win a national championship with the right coach. We go as the coach does. But unless Urban were to come out of retirement, there's no "sure thing".

Weis wasn't a bad hire. He was a bad head coach, but he wasn't a bad hire. Kelly wasn't a bad hire. He's a pretty good coach. But he's not good enough. Tom Herman wasn't a bad hire (neither was Charlie Strong, for that matter). Rich Rodriguez wasn't a bad hire. Jim Harbaugh certainly wasn't.

Saban at LSU was not a sure thing. Meyer at Florida was not a sure thing. Carroll at USC wasn't. Tressel at OSU wasn't. Dabo CERTAINLY wasn't. They all won national championships (in non-fluky ways, unlike Coker, Chizik, likely Orgeron).

In my eyes, there have been only three "sure thing" hires this century. One of them turned out to actually not be a sure thing at all (Harbaugh at Michigan) and one of them wasn't even the school's first choice (Saban at Alabama). Only one "sure thing" this century both worked out and was the school's clear target from the start (Meyer at OSU).

We know by now Kelly's not going to be at that level (not that you "can" let him go at this point). Whenever we make the next hire in a few years after BK's retirement, there will likely not be a "sure thing", barring Urban changing his mind for ND. We would do well to put in the work and the research to be in a good spot to get the next Saban (Michigan State level), Meyer (Utah level), Carroll, Tressel or Swinney... but admit we'll need the breaks to go our way that whichever coach is our next coach actually is at that level. Kelly's career as a head coach when he left UC for ND had trended similarly to Meyer's as a head coach when he left Utah for Florida. Unfortunately, that path did not continue for BK the way it did for Urban.

Ultimately, no matter what, the point remains: there's nothing intrinsically wrong with Notre Dame that's preventing us from winning a national championship.