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MEAC hadn't won a playoff game since 1999 by fortune_smith

Not a lot of close losses either. I'm not sure there's any evidence to suggest the SWAC would have been materially more successful than the MEAC. If these conferences could credibly compete at the FCS playoff level, I think they would still be doing so.

NCA&T, the pre-eminent HBCU program in recent years and winner of four Celebration Bowls from 2015-19, did earn an at-large bid in 2016, losing 39-10 to Richmond in the first round (round of 24).

I don't recall games in recent seasons in which HBCUs have played competitively against P5 or good G5 teams, but perhaps there have been some. I do recall that Howard upset UNLV three years ago as something like a 45-point underdog. And notably, the self-proclaimed Harvard of the West (that school based in Ann Arbor) notched a 63-6 win over the Delaware State Hornets in 2009.

As an indicator of the scheduling suitability of HBCUs, Rutgers played 11 HBCU games in the ten seasons from 2008-17. Rutgers won all 11 games and pitched seven shutouts, including five in a row. The average score was roughly 44-5 and only one game was closer than four scores.

Not all of the HBCUs are in these conferences. Hampton recently left the MEAC for the Big South, and Tennessee State is in the Ohio Valley.