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Yeah as was discussed here there's no question there is an by Carlos Huerta
advantage to getting the ball second. There's an even bigger advantage to getting the ball third. The debate is how to weigh the uncertainty of there ever being a third possession. It doesn't seem like the numbers guys have come to a consensus which as jt points out means it's a pretty good system to have in place to determine the winner. I personally don't have a preference and would probably let how my defense was playing dictate my decision. I wouldn't like the possibility of letting Mahomes know what he needed which in the case I scored a TD would mean he has four downs to work with but I really wouldn't like the possibility of having Mahomes/Butker only needing a FG to beat me in the third possession.