Players and coaches must now always be paranoid

so wondering about that is not irrational at all. Every day players you thought would stay at certain schools (even where they are successful) leave. And why not? Coaches leave. NIL offers arise. New players transfer in (or rumors there of) thus disrupting what you thought your future was looking to be. Or other players on your team transfer out affecting what you thought the future prospects of your team for winning would be.

Every year is a stand alone opportunity to maximize playing time, team winning and NIL...for each player. And very few coaches can you assume will be around for more than the next 2 years (at least with Shrews, you can probably assume 2 years).

This mess is what everyone deserves.

P.S. The Ivy League has the best system now. You get a great education and more importantly entrance into a world class alumni network. They don't have transfers in to take your place as a player. Coaches tend to stick around. If you succeed as a player, you can always leave early or take a 5th year elsewhere. And if you are good, the pro leagues will find you.