What will happen? I think he will go to Liverpool and I do not think following Klopp will have too much of an influence on him given his personality. Xabi is well loved by Liverpool and has a strong connection to the fans and he is proving he can win without the biggest wallet in the league.
Madrid will always be there for him but I do think Carletto will be moving upstairs with Flo & Jose Angel after next year. I also think he may fancy a national team slot to round out his managerial trophy cabinet.
Regardless, I do not think the timing will work out for Xabi and, even though he has not had a good year, Raul will always be a finalist for the job.
I’d rather not have Bayern raid them and go back to a one team league. If he stays I hope he can keep the talent around. But Citeh, Liverpool, others will come after Wirtz and the others.
He may coach there one day, but going there from Leverkusen and then raiding their talent will devastate a fanbase that he surely must have built up an affinity for. I wouldn't think destroying the parity in a league would do much for the league itself.
If they win the title this year, this is the peak of their modern existence. They've captured lightning in a bottle this year, but within a year of Xabi leaving they will be back to competing for a Europa spot. Dortmund and Leipzig will be stronger. Leverkusen are five times runners-up having never won it, and haven't even been finished in that position for 13 years. Their best success was finishing second for a handful of years in the late 90s and early 2000s. This isn't a historically top club.
Not sure what the league parity or Leverkusen supporter feelings have to do with this - it's a business. Xabi knows this, Leverkusen knows this and Bayern knows this. I think it's far more likely that Bayern sign Xabi than they do Wirtz (unless Gnabry and/or Coman move, then all bets are off).
Certain players/managers have connections with their clubs and supporters which make it an integral part of their success. That's why Jurgen Klopp said he'll never manage a club in England again. I'm not saying Xabi won't ever coach Bayern - he very well might - but I don't see him doing it directly and raiding the squad. Just my hunch.
As for Leverkusen, I've been impressed by Xabi of course. But I'm also impressed by their business of recent years. Grimaldo on a free was absolutely stunning. You can attribute it to Alonso, but deals involving Havertz, Diaby and sales along with arrivals of Frimpong, Wirtz, Schick, Tapsoba, etc all before Alonso show a fairly shrewd business. So just like Brighton "survived" Potter, I think Leverkusen have a chance to survive losing Xabi. Afterall, the guy that took a chance with Xabi will still be the sporting director.
of outlets including ESPN FC, has stated more than once in recent months that he believes Alonso will stay at Bayer another year and then take over at Real Madrid. That's #2 and #4 on your options listed below.
I would guess that going to Bayern is the least likely choice. As much as I would like him at Liverpool, he probably realizes it will be a rebuilding project with folks like TAA, Salah, and VVD either moving on or getting old or both. (I also have *no* idea about his coaching style and if it would suit the future Liverpool squad.)
The german press has been leaking (but it maybe wishful thinking) that he does not want to go to Liverpool. For Bayer, I read a recent statement by Simon Rolfes (who replaced Rudy Voller) who said contrary to 2 months ago that he may not stay
But again if you are Xavi Alonso and decided you stay at Bayer you need to make sure you keep the team or at least field a competitive squad. And after an Euro is difficult to keep the players whose value will go up: I can see them losing Grimaldo, Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong -given the right side deficiency at FCB I'm sure they may try to get him) .
On the reinforcement they have shown interest in Chris Führich but its a lot of money and Leverkusen cannot compete in a bidding war
And then there is the "Die Werkself " and the fact Bayer (the company) is not doing super well and has apparently mentioned they are not going to over invest
So if FCBayern can get 2-3 players including Wirtz, it maybe tough no to follow them. Dont forget Champions leage final in 2025 is in Munchen
It's pretty mind boggling the talent they have and what they have coming in. I'm sure they'd like to have Xabi and he'd like to go there. But it's not certain the job will be there if and when Xabi wants to make the jump. I find it hard to believe that with 2 of his 3 dream jobs open, that he'd wait it out for the 3rd.
Liverpool just hired Richard Hughes as their sporting director. Hughes just worked with Xabi's agent to bring Andoni Iraola to manage Bournemouth. Xabi doesn't strike me as someone who would hide from the shadow of Klopp. If he were, I think that he'd be similarly skeptical of managing superstar personalities like Mbappe, Vini, Jude, etc.
At this point my guess is: 60% Liverpool / 30% BL / 10% Bayern.
I don't think anyone knows anything.