Here's a version of what will happen
by Irishbuzz (2024-03-22 13:22:43)

In reply to: How do you see that playing out?  posted by novadamer


Current forces at play:
- SEC and Big 10 consolidating all the good teams (with high revenue brand potential) to their conferences. The ACC GoRs is delaying the inevitable.
- The vast majority of these top teams are affiliated with universities that don't care if football players are employees or student-athletes, as long the revenue works out in their favor and it doesn't impact other non-revenue sports. They are in the business of football because of the branding, revenue, etc.
- Future legislation, including potentially significant impacts to CBA and Title IX, clouds the future and neuters the NCAA.
- The NCAA has responded by essentially amputating it's enforcing arm: It is no longer regulating NIL or transfer/eligibility rules.
- Teams do not like the wild west of NIL or the transfer portal (yet have used this to their advantage).

One scenario from the multiverse:
- The B10 and SEC will break way to form their own league apart from the NCAA (think NFC and AFC forming the NFL).
- They will purge non-value added teams and invite the remaining high value teams. Expect lawsuits and mutiny if you are Mississippi State, Arkansas, Indiana, etc.
- The teams / league will be separate entities from the universities. The new league & teams will pay branding royalties and work out other financial terms (i.e. stadium ticket revenues). Schools will no longer pay coaching salaries as all salaries/contracts will be regulated by the new league.
- The new league will form a CBA with the players, who will be employees with contracts. There will be some form of a draft or player preference based team assignment. To keep it similar to college and maintain partnership with the NFL, players will likely have a version of "eligibility". This encourages teams to add the best new players graduating from high school. Maybe they will have exceptions/quotas for fan favorites like Johnny Manziel to cash in on the brand.
- The players will have requirements to be affiliated with the university: Not required to enroll, attend class, and no obligation to attend later. Maybe there will be some provisions for the university to partner with the new league / team provide an optional delayed path to a degree. Knowing that an ND education after football is a possibility may attract a small subset of players to ND.

This resolves the open issues above:
- Universities keep their revenue stream and brand recognition
- Title IX is protected and universities keep their non-revenue college sports (managed by the NCAA)
- Pending legislation is essentially resolved
- Players get paid and form a players union/CBA but give up some recent freedoms with transfer ability (expect NFL style transactions like trades and waivers)
- NFL will be a strong supporter as long as it's set up as a D league and can still draft players after 3 - 5 years.
- "College" football will look and feel the same. Bama players will play in Crimson Tide uniforms in Bryant-Denny on Saturdays against traditional SEC opponents. Most everyone will still watch.
- The rest of the schools with D1 football will reorganize conferences that make sense geographically with more focus on cost control as revenue and viewership/exposure will diminish. Some schools will shut down their football programs. The leftover teams may play "buy" games with teams from the new league.
- Title IX sports across the board will get better due to a return to geographical based conferences and NCAA regulation.

ND will be one of few schools with a difficult choice. There's not a large subset of high-revenue football teams and schools serious about student athletics. We might be only one. Most with a choice will opt for the new league due to the massive difference in revenue. I honestly don't know what ND will choose. My gut says we will join the new league but this largely gives up our competitive advantage (e.g. 40 year decision) vs. others football factories. Many here will say they won't watch ND football anymore. I won't blame you.


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