The year to year free agency is not going to be accepted by the employer.

I see there being an NFL-style salary cap, and quite possibly 3-4 year contracts. In addition, the ability to fine players for on and off the field antics (including bad grades).

The players can negotiate practice hours and off-season workout hours and a percentage of revenue.

The NCAA can't enforce anything currently because every rule will be overturned by the courts. Once there is a CBA in place, they will get enforcement powers back, within limits.

The school presidents would not.

That's why it hasn't happened yet, and that's why the various red herrings about title 9 and the like are thrown out there.

It's the only way the courts will accept the measures needed for competitive balance, just like all the other pro leagues have had to do.

If players are unionized, they are then employees, right?

What keeps them from, say, quitting at halftime to join the other team? Or going on strike in the third quarter? Is a collective bargaining agreement the way to prevent such things, and can it withstand legal challenges?

What about non work-related employee rules? Can a school require a certain GPA or class attendance, since the players are there for "football, not for school"?

Does this apply to all students at all schools, or is there a way for schools to "opt-out" and form a new amateur association?

Setting aside the greed/money which is the root of all this, how does paying athletes make the sport of college football better? Perhaps more just, but better for the fans, the players, the universities, and the sport in general. College football became so popular because it was different. No sport remains forever popular: one hundred years ago, baseball, boxing, and college football were kings. Only one remains.

Finally, how does all this play out with respect to the fact we're dealing with relatively immature people here. It's one thing to talk about CBAs and player unions with professionals who understand their livelihood is at stake, and they have an individual professional reputation to protect. These kids? We have seen how the loosened recruiting rules have turned into a charade first with a hat-dance and videos, now with secret NIL deals and threatened lawsuits.

Much of the discussion focuses on justice for the players, who have been used and abused as the schools and networks and coaches got rich. Got it, and it need to be fixed. But when we're done, it seems to me we're heading headlong into a semi-pro league, not college football.

I realize that is more of a problem for old-times like me. I gradually lost interest in each professional sport as they became both fairer to the players and more mercenary. Maybe that doesn't matter any more, or maybe it does.

The schools should just revert to the Ivy League model and then let the pro leagues set up semi-pro leagues to absorb the players who don’t want to go to school. Those leagues will fail and then the good players will return to college and accept academic scholarships. My point is that college alumni are the straws that stir the drink, not the athletes. Semi-pro leagues won’t be nearly as popular as college sports and eventually we can put this whole NIL -> unionization nightmare behind us.

Current forces at play:
- SEC and Big 10 consolidating all the good teams (with high revenue brand potential) to their conferences. The ACC GoRs is delaying the inevitable.
- The vast majority of these top teams are affiliated with universities that don't care if football players are employees or student-athletes, as long the revenue works out in their favor and it doesn't impact other non-revenue sports. They are in the business of football because of the branding, revenue, etc.
- Future legislation, including potentially significant impacts to CBA and Title IX, clouds the future and neuters the NCAA.
- The NCAA has responded by essentially amputating it's enforcing arm: It is no longer regulating NIL or transfer/eligibility rules.
- Teams do not like the wild west of NIL or the transfer portal (yet have used this to their advantage).

One scenario from the multiverse:
- The B10 and SEC will break way to form their own league apart from the NCAA (think NFC and AFC forming the NFL).
- They will purge non-value added teams and invite the remaining high value teams. Expect lawsuits and mutiny if you are Mississippi State, Arkansas, Indiana, etc.
- The teams / league will be separate entities from the universities. The new league & teams will pay branding royalties and work out other financial terms (i.e. stadium ticket revenues). Schools will no longer pay coaching salaries as all salaries/contracts will be regulated by the new league.
- The new league will form a CBA with the players, who will be employees with contracts. There will be some form of a draft or player preference based team assignment. To keep it similar to college and maintain partnership with the NFL, players will likely have a version of "eligibility". This encourages teams to add the best new players graduating from high school. Maybe they will have exceptions/quotas for fan favorites like Johnny Manziel to cash in on the brand.
- The players will have requirements to be affiliated with the university: Not required to enroll, attend class, and no obligation to attend later. Maybe there will be some provisions for the university to partner with the new league / team provide an optional delayed path to a degree. Knowing that an ND education after football is a possibility may attract a small subset of players to ND.

This resolves the open issues above:
- Universities keep their revenue stream and brand recognition
- Title IX is protected and universities keep their non-revenue college sports (managed by the NCAA)
- Pending legislation is essentially resolved
- Players get paid and form a players union/CBA but give up some recent freedoms with transfer ability (expect NFL style transactions like trades and waivers)
- NFL will be a strong supporter as long as it's set up as a D league and can still draft players after 3 - 5 years.
- "College" football will look and feel the same. Bama players will play in Crimson Tide uniforms in Bryant-Denny on Saturdays against traditional SEC opponents. Most everyone will still watch.
- The rest of the schools with D1 football will reorganize conferences that make sense geographically with more focus on cost control as revenue and viewership/exposure will diminish. Some schools will shut down their football programs. The leftover teams may play "buy" games with teams from the new league.
- Title IX sports across the board will get better due to a return to geographical based conferences and NCAA regulation.

ND will be one of few schools with a difficult choice. There's not a large subset of high-revenue football teams and schools serious about student athletics. We might be only one. Most with a choice will opt for the new league due to the massive difference in revenue. I honestly don't know what ND will choose. My gut says we will join the new league but this largely gives up our competitive advantage (e.g. 40 year decision) vs. others football factories. Many here will say they won't watch ND football anymore. I won't blame you.

No requirement that players live anywhere near the university. Teams could have housing and practice/training facilities in resort areas and fly in for games.

I wish I could disagree with your analysis.

I have been predicting (and lamenting) this outcome for about a decade now. One of the reasons I no longer oppose joining the B1G-n is that a conference from Pasadena-to-piscataway in no way resembles the Big-10 I hated. It's all just a temporary fix until the B1G and SEC negotiate the new future semi-pro league.

As to the players issues I raise, perhaps jt is right and the CBA addresses them, although how that works is beyond me. Non-compete clauses have all kinds of rules and limitations, and what is a union without strike or work actions?

I fear ND will go with the B1G/SEC on this, probably in the forlorn hope they can influence it to be less mercenary and more amateur. I wonder if there is room for a separate league, with some form of revenue-sharing and with the players still required to be student-athletes. It won't be as lucrative, but there might be enough teams for it to be viable.

I agree that your scenario is likely but I think you need to resolve a couple of issues.
First: what about BB?
Second: The schools that opt, or are pushed, out of this pro league, do they have to give up TV? If they are still on TV don't we still have a problem with players not getting paid?

as to most of the rest of your questions, I would imagine that a collectively bargained solution is the answer there; schools could require things like GPA, class attendance, maximum amount of eligibility, etc. in exchange for some form(s) of compensation. At least, that's how it has been explained to me.

As to the relative immaturity of many of these players, I don't see a remedy there. Perhaps allow for representation? What do they do with child actors? I don't think that the answer lies within restricting earning power.

I don't think that any of this is good for the game, the fans, etc. I think that there was a path to avoiding all of this years ago, and certain schools and programs had an opportunity to lead that was passed by in favor of more TV revenue, the facilities arms race, etc.

The NCAA and the member schools could have created an amateur concept which shared revenue and enforced rules, and the courts would have left it alone, imo. They got greedy and all hell broke loose.

Go back to 1986 Hotlz's first contract I think he was making like 300,000 all in. If my memory is right it was divided between his salary and thinks like shoe deals, camps, radio etc. Adjusted for inflation that should be around 850,000 today.

The schools make millions, pay coaches millions and have staffs of dozens if not hundreds of people all making a good living. The networks make hundreds of millions and pay their announcers millions and employ thousands of people making a very good living.

The only people not making money are the students. Yes I understand they get a degree and as a parent with a child headed off to college I understand the expense but my son also isnt one of the 3000 best football players graduating fromHS this year.

As for immaturity no one ever seems to raise that issue for HS baseball kids who get drafted so I dont understnd the concern here.

Yes the system will change but that is because the powers that be exploited an unfair system for far too long and refused to change anything.