the data suggests ND has a 20% chance of success in 2015
by MrE (2014-11-30 14:23:38)

In reply to: He has said this team is one year away  posted by tf86

How can Swarbrick rationalize another year of Kelly if that's the math?

Further, if Kelly somehow turns in a 2015 season that meets Swarbrick's stated performance standard of "being in the conversation" of the championship hunt (which Kelly has failed to do in 4 of 5 seasons), is it fair to say there's a 75% chance that Kelly would parlay that into leaving ND for somewhere else?

Which means there's a 5% chance that Kelly will be at ND in 2016 after a great 2015 season.

Shouldn't that be factored into what Swarbrick does this week?