I think it will be Georgia, Michigan, Cincy, Alabama, Ok State, ND.

If two of teams below Georgia lose (Mich, Cincy, Alabama), ND is in. If not, ND is out.

They will be if they beat a top ten ranked Baylor next week.

I'm not saying they need to get blown out, but if Bama goes into the last 5 minutes of that game with a chance to win, then I think there's a good chance they stay ahead of us.

will be that Alabama will not be a 2 loss playoff team. When you factor in they will not be a conference champion plus you would have them ranked third to avoid a Georgia rematch, Alabama will be out.

Why should Auburn matter? The playoff committee has shown nothing but new precedent when it comes to Alabama. Has there been another team that didn't even make their Conference Championship, essentially ending 3rd in their Conference, & still make the playoff?

Take the emotion out of it.

Team A is dominant all year and goes undefeated in conference.

Team B is good, but not nearly as dominant as team A. They lose to another good team in regular season play, then loses the conference championship to team A.

Is it fair to make team A beat team B again in the playoffs? Would a split between the two teams convince you that team B should be champion, especially of the point differential skews toward team A (say a 10 point victory in the conference championship and a 3 point playoff loss)?

to beat them twice? Because if Bama beats GA I could see them playing for the NC.

In their game against Clemson, they needed a defensive TD to win. As the season progressed it became more apparent that Clemson's offense was beyond shit. Their next best win is Arkansas, which is only ranked because they're in the SEC. Their next best win is either Kentucky or Tennessee after that, your guess is as good as mine. Being dominant against UAB, Charleston Southern, Vanderbilt, South Carolina & Ga Tech should essentially give them the benefit of the doubt?

the time. The Saints beat the Bucs 34-23 and 38-3 in the regular season last year, but lost 30-20 in the playoffs. The Chiefs also beat the Bucs in the regular season.

They can pretty much put Cincy any of spots 2-4 to orchestrate the matchups they want. If they want Bama in, they'll just put Bama 3rd and Cincy 4th.

Their regular season is over. OK State plays Baylor next week.

They'd have 3 Top 15 wins (Oklahoma State, BYU, Oklahoma).

Oklahoma St.'s potential 1-loss conference championship season is the juice that'll propel them into the final four.

Any B12 champ with 2-losses, whether it would have been Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. or Baylor would have fallen short.

Alabama is the only potential 2-loss team that could still make it.

I don't *think* Ohio St. still has a shot - but let's see -- if say, the committee drops them from #2 to #6 on Tuesday and drops us to #7 with Oklahoma St. being #5 - then Ohio St. would be still be in play - needing help of course and we'd be finished.

If Ohio St. drops below ND, they're finished. Honestly, I expect that to happen.

As for Alabama, I would hope their performance yesterday damaged their resume enough that if they lose to Georgia they wouldn't get in over Notre Dame but I'm still not confident of that. I know many disagree but whatever.

I still think the clear path for ND - one that takes the 2-loss Alabama/Committee crap out of play is, assuming Michigan beats Iowa, is for Houston to beat Cincinnati and for Baylor to beat Oklahoma St. If that happens we'll be in the playoffs. Also, if that happens, it doesn't matter who wins the Alabama-Georgia game - we'll still be in.

I could see the committee pointing to a 2-loss team(s) and making that comparison and not framing it from the total-losses perspective. But yes, 2-loss Alabama and 2-loss Baylor is preferable.

ND's 11 wins:

6th-place Big 10 - Wisconsin
8th-place Big 10 - Purdue
4th-place MAC - Toledo
7th or 9th-place Pac 12 - USC
11th-place Pac 12 - Stanford
8th-place AAC - Navy
7th-place ACC - Virginia Tech
8th-place ACC - Virginia
9th-place ACC - Florida State
11th-place ACC - North Carolina
12th-place ACC - Georgia Tech

Deep down - in places they don't talk about at parties - the committee doesn't want Notre Dame in the playoffs.

They know we haven't beaten anybody. They know what happened the last two times we've been there. They don't think very highly of this particular team - for the same reasons - many on this board have expressed angst over this season, this team and the fool's gold of a soft as shit November schedule.

That's why the prospect of an 11 win Alabama team still getting in over an 11 win ND team is still very real despite Bama losing to Georgia. I don't think though that Baylor has the cachet to hurdle ND with two losses. It's almost like ND needs to be just left their standing at the gate while Cincinnati and Oklahoma St. collapse at the finish line - and it will be like, "Oh okay, fuck it, I guess you guys are in."

Again though, we'll know what they really thinks of ND on Tuesday. Will Oklahoma St. jump us? Will Ohio St. be parked in front of us as we fall to #7?

If that happens, just pull for for Cincinnati to make the playoffs so ND can go to the Fiesta Bowl and avoid the Peach Bowl and that snoozer of a date with the ACC champ.

We will then face the winner of Pitt vs Wake in the Orange Bowl.

Woot.

Jack and Brian will have engineered a “major” bowl win.

Rose gets B1G and P12, Sugar gets SEC and B12.

How does selection order work for Peach and Fiesta?

Geography and potential matchups are factors. ACC champ will likely go to Peach Bowl due to geography (that would be a slam dunk if Wake Forest wins, likely but not 100% if Pitt wins.) If Alabama misses the CFP, I think the Peach Bowl also would take Ole Miss (Peach Bowl was SEC vs. ACC prior to becoming a NY6 bowl.)

The wildcard is if Iowa beats Michigan. In that case, I think the Big 10 is shut out of the CFP, Iowa goes to the Rose Bowl as the Big 10 champ, and Michigan and Ohio State both wind up in Access Bowls. In that case, I think one goes to the Peach Bowl vs. the ACC champ, and the other goes to the Fiesta Bowl, likely against us.

Assuming Bama loses to UGA -

then the top four are UGA, Cincy, Okie St and ND?

I am thinking the only way you get an ND Michigan match up in the Fiesta at this point is Bama beating UGA and an Iowa victory.

since UNC. It will be a dog fight if that game has any indication of how a game against Pitt would play out.

Would be a little more interesting than Wake.

Would this be the first time in decades ND would be a favorite to win a major bowl game? When was the last time that happened?

the Jan. 1, 1994 Cotton Bowl against Texas A&M, which was also ND's last major bowl win.

Since then, ND has played in nine major bowls, was underdogs in all nine and ended up losing all nine:

Fiesta Bowl (1994 season vs. Colorado)
Orange Bowl (1995 season vs. FSU)
Fiesta Bowl (2000 season vs. Oregon State)
Fiesta Bowl (2005 season vs. Ohio State)
Sugar Bowl (2006 season vs. LSU)
BCS National Championship (2012 season vs. Alabama)
Fiesta Bowl (2015 season vs. Ohio State)
Cotton Bowl (2018 season vs. Clemson)
Rose Bowl (2020 season vs. Alabama)

Not impressed with Cincinnati. I agree with your general line of thinking and expect us to remain 6 or maybe drop to 7: GA, Michigan, Bama, Cinn. (or maybe even 5?), Oklahoma State, ND, tOSU (will they stay above ND?)

FWIW, I expect Georgia to beat Bama by at least one TD next week. This is not a typical Saban Bama team.

Then OkSU, ND, tOSU, Baylor, Ole Miss, Oregon to round out the top 10 in that order.

Guessing Iowa moves up a decent chunk (but not top 10), and OU drops to 14 or 15.

So Iowa, MSU, BYU, Wake, OU, Pitt, likely in that order, then Utah, NCST, SDSU, Houston, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Clemson, Purdue, ULL.