Maybe they should, but the committee would drop them like a bad habit if they lose a game. They'd talk about how, yes, Cincinnati beat us, but ND's schedule is rated significantly better than theirs (which is true) and the way they've played since mid-October speaks for itself, etc. etc.

Let’s not get carried away here.

Your other points are correct — although 1-loss Cincinnati staying ahead of ND is debatable.

If UM loses in the game of the century, I predict they'll stay ahead of us.

There’d be zero logic not dropping a team one spot ahead of us if they lose and have a second loss.

Some of the other points are valid. UM staying at 5 with us at 6 if they lose to OSU is not.

They are not going to go from 3 to only 4 with two losses. They either win the SEC or they are out.

The Big 12 jumping us is very real. It is by far our top issue with getting in since we need a round robin of losses there. Still - we are #5 at worst 99% likely given 2 teams in front of us absolutely must lose - and Michigan is by far the most likely one of them to lose.

Reality is unless Cincy also loses, the doomsday scenario of being #4 happens. We either want to be #3 or #5.

The committee has already signaled that Bama is on thin ice. The idea of Michigan or tOSU staying ahead of us with a 2nd loss is silly.

As for Cinci, a loss by them is a win-win for ND. They will remain in the Top 10 giving ND a quality loss but, definitely drop out of the Top 4.

The Big 12 is the big (potential) problem. But, only if OSU wins out. Still, a Cinci loss solves that problem.

2 losses with no marquee wins? They are out.

Because it’s not going to be a good game

OSU/Mich loser - absurd they will be like 10.
Bama 2 loss - might drop behind ND.
Cincy - definitely behind with loss.