Playing with that predictor a little:

Playing with that predictor a little:
by Irish_Texan (2021-11-23 14:19:06)

In reply to: ESPN Playoff Predictor currently has ND at 52% (5th-best). (link) posted by G.K.Chesterton

If OkSt wins out, this model gives them only a 59% chance to be in the playoff, which incidentally is the exact same number we get to with a win on Saturday.
Bama, with a win against Auburn but a loss to UGA, still has a 55% chance to get in, according to this model. If they lose to Auburn but beat Georgia, it goes up to 79%. tOSU is 96% assuming they win their conference, and Cincy is all the way to 90% assuming they win out.

I'm surprised to see Alabama's chances so high with a loss in the SEC championship. I understand the alternative, as a win over Georgia would be as impressive as any other win this year, enough even to overcome two losses.

Re: Bama's chances despite losing to UGA.

You have to also factor that takes into account other things happening. If the Bedlam winner on Saturday loses in the Big 12 Championship, OSU/Mich loses to Wisconsin, UC drops a game and/or Kelly pulls a BK 1.0 against Stanford. If two of those four things happen, they're probably still in even with a loss to UGA (assuming they don't also lose to Auburn).

I agree if all teams hold serve, they have basically no chance with a loss to UGA. I do think they still have a pretty good shot with a loss to Auburn and a win over UGA, even if everyone holds serve. It'd basically come down to a 2-loss Bama, 1-loss OU/Ok State and 1-loss ND, and I think Bama would get the nod in that scenario.

If Alabama loses, how badly they lose will have an effect

on our chances.