Think it likely we play Alabama

Nope

What would be nice is if they ranked us ahead (3#) of Cincinnati (#4) based on strength of schedule versus head to head early in the season...Rick

Bama by 24. It would be 44 if not for…

Kyren.

In with 2 losses to Georgia? *

If Alabama is #5, they’re going to the Sugar

There’s no way to match them up against ND in the Sugar

We are playoff, fiesta or peach. Period.

Fiesta picks first if Cincy is in the playoffs. Fiesta has to take Cincy if they are not in the playoffs - so we go to peach in that case.

Sounds likely that we will be in the fiesta or the playoff *

This is how I see it

If Cincy loses, dropping them to the Fiesta Bowl, we would be more likely to take their spot in the playoff than be left to the Peach.

Appreciate these clarifications

Falsely assumed #5 would play #6.

The non-playoff bowls have their normal contracted teams

With the group of 5 rule forcing one to take that team each year if they are ranked high enough as the only exception. ND slips in to replace the ACC in the orange if the ACC is in the playoff and we are ranked highest and haven’t played there too many times in whatever window that is.

The non-playoff bowls rotate who gets first pick for at large teams.

I don't think we replace the ACC team in the Orange Bowl.

That's a common misconception because it makes more sense than the reality. The reality is that ND's agreement with the Orange Bowl is for them to be the opposing team that faces the ACC representative, which seems dumb because we already play those teams every three years.

If ND was able to replace an ACC team in the Orange Bowl, then that would have happened in 2019 when the Orange Bowl took #24 ranked Virginia squad instead of #15 ND.

That is correct

I would bet paper money the Orange Bowl is going to want to set that relationship straight with the next contract.

The contract states we can go Orange only twice. They haven't picked us yet, and I imagine they'll try to get their two bites at us.

Do the bowls pick or the committee? Or is it gentleman's

agreement? My understanding is the conference contracts stay intact and are honored. Beyond that, I didn't think the bowls had any say in the matter. I thought the committee handled the assignment of teams to the NY6 bowls.

From the CFP website

SELECTION COMMITTEE RESPONSIBILITIES
Rank the top 25 teams and assign the top four to Playoff Semifinal sites.
Assign teams to selected New Year’s bowls.
- Create competitive matchups.
- Attempt to avoid rematches of regular-season games and repeat appearances in specific bowls.
- Consider geography.

In actuality, is it handled more like the old BCS model where the bowls make the selections and the playoff committee honors those requests?

Bowls don't have say in it for the most part

The Rose, Sugar and Orange bowls are all determined exclusively by CFP ranking and conference contracts. Peach, Fiesta and Cotton is a little more murky because they have no contracted slots, but the highest-ranked G5 champion obviously always gets one of them.

I think El K was saying the Orange would like to change the contract to allow ND to replace the ACC team under certain scenarios, but with the CFP expansion coming, the Orange will probably be a CFP game going forward.