No. 5 in the AP poll *

Remember that time we were #5 in the AP

Back in December of 1977?
That was good enough heading into the Cotton Bowl.
I think I like the old system a lot more than what it's turned into now.

If committee can't deny Cincy, will blame ND and rank #5. *

Some harsh playoff realities...

Even though ND continues to rise in the rankings, I think their chances are looking somewhat bleak as this thing crystalizes.

If Georgia, Ohio St, and Cincinnati win out, the final spot will come down to:

11-2 Alabama
11-1 Notre Dame
A 1 or 2-loss B12 Champion

I know many are adamant that a 2-loss Alabama team won't make it in over ND but that will be irrelevant if the B12 Champ has one loss because that team will get the final spot over both ND and Alabama. If the B12 Champ has two losses, that final spot will then come down to ND and Alabama.

Again - which way will the committee lean if it's between a pair of 11 win teams in 11-1 ND and 11-2 Alabama?

If Cincinnati loses that will open up another spot in the top four.

Again, if the B12 Champ has one loss, they'll get one spot alongside Georgia and Ohio St. Which means it will again come down to Alabama and Notre Dame for that final spot.

Considering our 11-1 is soft as sh*t, I'm not so confident we'd get in over Alabama. Others may disagree but I just don't know.

Now if Cincinnati loses and the B12 champ has two losses, that could render the playoffs:

Georgia
Ohio St.
Alabama
Notre Dame

I think the committee would stick 11-2 Alabama at #3 to avoid back-to-back-games with Georgia.

Having said all that, I know many would prefer The Fiesta Bowl vs. Michigan or Michigan St. anyway - and that's two more Cincinnati wins and two more Alabama wins away from being 100% a reality.

In your scenario, I think the pick order would be

1st – 1-loss Big XII champ
2nd – 11-1 ND
3rd - 2-loss Big XII champ
4th - 11-2 Bama

A 2-loss Big12 champ is what we need the most to get in. *

... and a Cincinnati loss to Houston --

That would take the ND/Alabama debate out of the committee's hands.

I'm personally strong now in the camp that if it comes down to it, an 11-2 Alabama team will get the nod over an 11-1 Notre Dame team.

Need three things to happen ...

tOSU, Alabama, and Cincinnati are in a virtual tie. One of them has to drop out of that group to make room for ND, with Alabama facing the most difficult challenge. tOSU and Cincy holding serve and a close game between Alabama and Georgia would lock this group into the CFP. If two teams fall out then our prospects might actually look pretty good.

ND, Michigan, and OkSU are in a virtual tie for the first team out, with OU on the outside looking in. Beating Stanford is not going to elevate ND above the other two. We need both Michigan and OkSU to falter in some way without OU gaining ground.

We just elevated ourselves over UM and OSU…

By beating…Georgia Tech!!! Of course beating Stanford in such a way can elevate us even more

Simplest Playoff Path?

Michigan and Cincy both lose? I presume we jump a 1-loss Cincy team due to SOS and optics. I don't have as much faith in jumping a 2-loss Bama in a close one w/ Georgia

AL, Mich, tOSU, Cincy, OK, other OSU all lose another game

If enough of those six happen, we're in!

Cincy will drop 6-9 spots with any loss

They will lose to a ranked team at least - but not a power 5 team, so by definition their loss will be bad. Ours also is bad, but earlier in the year.

Alabama will be out with a loss of any kind. Why? Because they are going to be 3rd not 2nd in the new poll. They would go from 2-4 with a close loss, but they won’t go from 3 to 4 with a close loss - especially since that makes it a first round rematch.

I think that's the most direct. Not sure how likely it is

Michigan is about a one touchdown underdog to OSU, Cincy is more than a two touhdown favorite in their game and I don't believe their conference has a championship game.

I just noticed that they have posted a line for the SEC championship game: Georgia by 4.5

Edit: On the subject of betting lines: The initial line for Florida vs FSU made Floruda a 10 point favorite. Florida is now a one point favorite. Of course we know the event which came between the two lines.

Cincinnati will have a conference championship game

vs. Houston, who will most certainly be 11-1 after playing UConn this upcoming week. It will be a reasonably tough matchup.

Thanks *

The OU/OSU game is a factor, too

Right now the line is OU by 13.5 over OSU. If the favorites all hold serve next few weeks, then we might come out in a pretty good position.

Georgia beats Bama and OU/Ok St split their remaining games

I don’t see how the committee could justify giving a 2-loss Bama team another crack at the undisputed SEC Champs

We'd get beaten badly by OSU, Bama or UGA

Does anyone think otherwise?

Quite possibly. But I’d much rather take our chances against

The best, and risk getting killed than taking the pu$$ified way out and engineer
a “major bowl win” against a a 2nd tier Pitt or WF.

No. Not at all. *

I honestly don't know about Bama this year.

They have disgusting talent but could have lost two home games to a not good LSU and good but not great Arkansas.

They can beat anybody at any time but their armor also has some chinks this year.

Agreed.

OSU and UGA seem to be playing a different level of football than everyone else.

Alabama doesn't seem to have that aura of invincibility as it has had in years past.

But Saban with 3 weeks to prepare for Kelly/Rees? *

That's where I'm at.

Prior to the game Saban would do what he always does: Sandbag with the best of them. "No team has improved through the season like ND has. Their DL gives me nightmares. They've got a stable of first rounders at RB who refuse to go down on the initial contact."

And all those accolades would be long forgotten when Bama's up 3 or 4 TDs at the half.

What's ND's point differential in last 3 playoff appearances *

There is no objective reason to think otherwise *

alabama close lost w Georgia would be terrible

much faith in jumping a 2-loss Bama in a close one w/ Georgia