My definition
by squid (2021-08-27 14:24:49)

In reply to: Western Illinois isn't Tier 4  posted by tf86

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was 99% chance of victory in the game.

Just a rough estimate of course. But the point being that the chance of losing such a game is so low that the outcome is all but assured. That's very different than playing a weak FBS team.

Chance of a lost after playing three teams with a 85% win chance: 27% chance of a lost. Those three games alone make an undefeated season a 3/4 proposition.

Chance of a lost after playing three teams with a 99% win chance: 3% chance of a lost.

So by your definition
by tf86  (2021-08-29 11:52:30)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Would every FBS team be Tier III or higher? Just curious.
I'm a pretty good horseshoes player.
by squid  (2021-08-29 13:36:06)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

But not particularly interested in setting out formal categories.

Sagarin's strength of schedule backs up my broad categorization of the difficulty of each team's games.
No argument with your math
by tf86  (2021-08-29 16:48:02)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Just trying to understand the argument about tiers. To me at least, there isn't much sense in using that concept if there isn't agreement among this board. Lower than mid-Tier II, I don't see that on this board.