Usage of blue-chip WR freshmen

Usage of blue-chip WR freshmen
by Final_Flanner (2021-08-10 17:25:52)
Edited on 2021-08-10 17:26:30

Someone on reddit wrote an opus on how teams have used blue-chip WR recruits ("blue-chip": 4 or 5 stars on 247 Composite rankings) as true freshmen over the past 5 seasons. Given it's a frequent topic of discussion here, I figure folks would be interested to read it. It's super long so click the link to read the whole thing. I'll highlight a few excerpts.

File under 20/20 hindsight
Jordan Addison led all true freshman WR in receptions, but interestingly enough he was recruited by Notre Dame to play CB due to his length. Addison not only had family in South Bend, but his parents and most of his dad’s side of the family were Notre Dame fans. Notre Dame wanted him at CB though and Addison decided to play WR leading him to Pittsburgh, but if Notre Dame had offered him to play WR it’s entirely possible he would have been there instead. I’m mostly bringing this up because not only was Addison awesome right away and Notre Dame had some struggles at WR last year, Notre Dame has had 10 bluechip true freshman WRs from 2016-2020, only two of them even had a catch (Chase Claypool & Kevin Austin), and neither reached 100 yards nor had a receiving TD (5/81/0 and 5/90/0 respectively).

The facts agree with criticisms here
Michigan, Oregon, and Notre Dame with 10 tied for the most bluechips without any reaching 300 yards as a true freshman, but Michigan & Oregon did have a WR reach 200 yards unlike Notre Dame.

Totals for bluechip true freshman WRs (2016-2020):

WRs with 1,000+ receiving yards: 3/351 (0.9%, 0.6 per year)

WRs with 750+ receiving yards: 8/351 (2.3%, 1.6 per year)

WRs with 500+ receiving yards: 20/351 (5.7%, 4 per year)

WRs with 300+ receiving yards 45/351 (12.8%, 9 per year)

5* WRs (26 total from 2016-2020)

5* WRs with 1,000+ receiving yards: 0/26 (0%, 0 per year)

5* WRs with 750+ receiving yards: 2/26 (7.7%, 0.4 per year)

Demetris Robertson (California - 2016; 50/767/7); Amon-Ra St. Brown (USC - 2018; 60/750/3)

5* WRs with 500+ receiving yards: 4/26 (15.4%, 0.8 per year)

Kayshon Boutte (LSU - 2020; 45/735/5); George Pickens (Georgia - 2019; 49/727/8)

5* WRs with 300+ receiving yards 7/26 (26.9%, 1.4 per year);

Garrett Wilson (Ohio State - 2019; 30/432/5); Tee Higgins (Clemson - 2017; 17/345/2); Ja’Marr Chase (LSU - 2018, 247sports 5*; 23/313/3)

Click here for link at https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/p15s4p/how_often_do_bl

Thanks for posting this. Great in-depth analysis

From the article and his follow-up comments, it is clear the original poster did pretty thorough research.

While it shows that Freshman wide receivers being major contributors are rare, it also shows that Notre Dame has also failed beyond its peers.

They've had 10 guys qualify.
- Kevin Austin, Chase Claypool, Jordan Johnson, Xavier Watts, Javon McKinley, Kendall Abdur-Rahman, Lawrence Keys III, Micah Jones, Braden Lenzy, Jafar Armstrong

5 guys didn't see a snap.
- Kendall Abdur-Rahman, Lawrence Keys III, Micah Jones, Braden Lenzy, Jafar Armstrong

3 guys got on the field but had 0 receptions
- Jordan Johnson (2 games, 26 snaps), Xavier Watts (1 game, 16 snaps), Javon McKinley (1 game, 6 snaps)

Only Chase Claypool and Kevin Austin had anything resembling contributions
- Chase Claypool 11 games, 102 snaps, 5 receptions, 81 yards, 0 TD
- Kevin Austin 11 games, 119 snaps, 5 receptions, 90 yards, 0 TD

For comparison, I pulled Alabama, Clemson, and Oklahoma as peers:
Alabama
#: 11
4 with 0 receptions, 1 with 1 reception for -2 yards
Their top 6 all saw at least 100 snaps with their top 4 (DeVonta Smith, Henry Ruggs III, Jaylen Waddle, Jerry Jeudy) being pretty solid contributors

Clemson
#: 11
Only 1 without a reception -- he had 0 games played so potentially injured.
The other 10 played in nearly every game, had at least 2 receptions, typically 15 to 20, ~200 yds receiving, and a couple of touchdowns.

Oklahoma
#: 8
1 played in 0 games, 1 played in only 1 game, 1 played in 7 games, the rest played in most of the games
4 had over 10 receptions, 5 had over 100 yards, 5 had at least one touchdown