Depends on the "impact" of the discovery

While Higgs formulated the Higgs Boson in 60s, it wasn't discovered until 2012. Higgs won the Nobel in physics the next year.

Geim and Novoselov won the physics award in 2010 from work published in 2004.

rarely is impact realized immediately as the basic science typically needs to become applied in some form ... or the theoretic science needs to be demonstrated through experimentation.

In the case of the COVID vaccine, I could see multiple winners involved in the development of the mRNA vaccines this cycle across the award categories of physiology or medicine, chemistry, and peace.