I don't follow this line of argument

Our path to a NC is fairly similar whether we are inside or outside of a conference; and it is arguable that our path in very slightly easier without a conference.

Without a conference, assuming we go through the schedule 11-0.

Game 12:
We are the 5th seed and host a first round playoff game against a 12th seed.

Game 13:
A neutral site New Year's Day game against the 4th seed.

Game 14:
A semi-final game against the winner of the 1 seed v. 8/9 seed.

Inside the ACC, assuming we go through the schedule 11-0.

Game 12:
Conference Championship Game at a "neutral site" in the South against the top other ACC team (which for the near term, is likely to be Clemson)

Game 13:
A neutral site New Year's day game against a winner of a first round game.

Game 14:
A semi-final game

So, for Game 12, it's a question of a home game against a borderline Top 10 team at home versus a neutral site ACC Championship game. From there, the games seem fairly equivalent in difficulty. So, I think the path with Independence seems marginally easier (if still infinitesimally small in either case)