Benefit of playoff access is not immutable across formats.
by harmonica (2021-06-24 16:57:20)
Edited on 2021-06-24 17:00:11

In reply to: I'm not sure what you mean by monolithic goal  posted by gregmorrissey


Let's say all you care about is probability of winning a championship and ignore such other important considerations as regular season quality and player safety.

In this scenario, what you care about is probability of making the playoff (let's call this p) times probability of winning the playoff once you're in (called w). People seem to ignore the impact of the latter, either out of dishonesty or numerical illiteracy.

Swarbrick has increased p for every team, but for that to be worthwhile for Notre Dame, we need our w to decrease by less than that amount. Since Notre Dame can't receive a bye, I find it highly unlikely that this is the case. Its path to victory once inside the playoff has become disproportionately harder.

Combining that with the regular season dilution and player safety, I have yet to hear anything approaching a compelling argument for this format.

And your assertion that Notre Dame would most likely need to be undefeated to make an eight-team playoff is quite overstated. Looking back at past years, here's how many non-champion one-loss power 5 teams there were:

2019: 0
2018: 0
2017: 2
2016: 1
2015: 1
2014: 1
2013: 1

A one-loss Notre Dame would get occasionally shut out, but that claim is absurd.



Are you discounting/ignoring the possibility that Notre Dame
by gregmorrissey  (2021-06-24 17:47:56)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

could be structurally excluded from the playoff format by virtue of a conference championship requirement or only allowing a small number of at-large bids?


With regards to player safety, I concede that playing football at all is not in the best interests of player safety, and every additional game further increases the opportunity of short-term and long-term health issues.

Personally, I think the regular season has mostly sucked for 20 years. There are many weekends with almost zero games worth watching either because it's a powerhouse playing a patsy or it's a slate of two .500 teams squaring off. So, if we are going to focus on overstated arguments, this idea that the regular season in college football is so wonderful is rarely backed up by fact. "Scheduling a BCS/playoff berth" existed long before Swarbrick/Notre Dame started to implement the practice in recent years. Personally, I think that the expanded playoff increases the meaning of the regular season. Maybe not as "do or die every week", but as I pointed out that really hasn't been the case for the very top teams for most of this century.


Do you believe that Swarbrick could have stopped playoff expansion? If so, then I have no response because I can't see any way that a lone Notre Dame could have talked 6 major conferences with 64 schools to forego possibly $10m-$15m each per year in increased revenue from the playoff alone. Add to that, the good feelings and donor contributions that come from making the playoff. Sure, Notre Dame with it's $10B endowment, gilded Dome, and exclusive NBC contract will tell the others that "the money's not important".


And, maybe I did overstate the "ND would need to be undefeated argument". In reviewing the 2014-2020 playoff rankings, here are the at-large bids that would have made it...


2014
Baylor/TCU (11-1)
Mississippi St (10-2)

2015
Iowa (12-1)
Ohio State (11-1)

2016
Ohio State (11-1)
Michigan (10-2)

2017
Alabama (11-1)
Wisconsin (12-1)

2018
Notre Dame (12-0)
Georgia (11-2)

2019
Georgia (11-2)
Baylor (11-2)

2020
Notre Dame (10-1)
Texas A&M (8-1)

So, it's probable that a one-loss Notre Dame team would be selected.







I think Notre Dame should lead
by bmoreirish  (2021-06-24 18:15:52)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

We are in a position of power. College football is not going to weaken an independent Notre Dame by eliminating them from playoff consideration. They may threaten to do so but they never actually will. Why? Because Notre Dame is special.

Unfortunately it looks like we may have an AD who can be coerced into your way of thinking. He might not be capable of calling the bluff and that’s a damn shame.

Here is what I would like ND to do:

Step 1: call out the conference championship games for the money-grabbing farce that they are. Call for their elimination. (There are plenty of examples of conference teams making the playoff without playing in or losing their conference championship game including, crazily enough, ND.)

Step 2: call out the expansion of the playoffs as a further money grab that continues to strain the student-athletes. Playing an NFL schedule is not in their best interests.

Step 3: sit and wait.

I’d like ND to use its power for good, not act like a directional school.


of course it's a money grab
by gregmorrissey  (2021-06-24 19:11:39)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I've asked before, but why would we expect college football to exist outside of the analyst-driven, "making MORE money is all that matters" world that exists in every fabric of our lives?!!! Things grow and change or they die. And sometimes they grow and change and die anyway. Only time will tell as it relates to college football.


And we aren't talking a small amount of money here. I could be misremembering, but when I was looking into it a year ago, I thought the TV contract value of the SEC championship game was something like $50m annually. Early estimates for an expanded 12 team playoff are for TV contract values as high as $1.9B annually, up from around $650m now.


I posted elsewhere, but how is Notre Dame going to lead the charge against money-grabbing? Golden Dome, $10B endowment, $80k tuition, exclusive TV contract, half-billion dollar facilities, one of 5 schools with multiple playoff bids. We are the definition of moneyed elite. How is the PR on that one going to go over? For God's sake, nobody even cares that we are one of a small number of schools that actually attempts to educate and graduate ALL of our players.





“Because everyone else is doing it”
by bmoreirish  (2021-06-25 07:47:24)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Sorry, that is not a good justification for this. Why does ND have such a large endowment? Because alumni feel so strongly about the education they received there that they give to support it. I’ll say it again: ND is special and everyone in the college football world knows it.

Who cares if no one else cares that we graduate our players? I care. The school cares. The parents of the athletes care. That’s what matters.

Some things are worth fighting for. ND is in prime position to lead and does not need to bend to peer pressure.


I am. *
by MrE  (2021-06-24 18:03:13)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post