Irrelevant to our crap offense but how do you define top 25?
by StetsonDan (2021-05-27 15:45:42)
Edited on 2021-05-27 16:33:12

In reply to: Who here wants to diagnose why we cant crack the Top25  posted by SEE

Post Reply Return to Rock's House

I'll defer to others on explaining why the offense is terrible, but I'm wondering how you define top 25.

I know pmcdnd96's post on Tuesday mentioned yards per game, but that's probably not the best measurement of offense given it depends on pace of play. That is to say, teams which run high-tempo or hurry-up-no-huddle offenses will have more possessions and more plays so they will inherently have more yards per game than teams like Wisconsin and Stanford which try to milk the clock.

While it may be too much of an analytics thing for some on this board, Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings may be worth reviewing. His offensive rankings include things like stuff rate (number of rush plays which gain 0 or negative yards) and success rate (% of 1st down plays which achieve 50% of necessary yards for another 1st down, 2nd down plays which achieve 70% of necessary yards, 3rd down plays which achieve a 1st down). He also tries to adjust the statistics by pace of play so that it doesn't matter if a team is running a hurry-up like they're 2007 Oregon or if they're burning clock like Army's triple option against a major opponent.

While I don't defend Kelly, it's worth noting that he has had some offense which rank in the top 25 of offensive SP+ (but still not top 15). Last year's offense ranked 19th.



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