I'll defer to others on explaining why the offense is terrible, but I'm wondering how you define top 25.
I know pmcdnd96's post on Tuesday mentioned yards per game, but that's probably not the best measurement of offense given it depends on pace of play. That is to say, teams which run high-tempo or hurry-up-no-huddle offenses will have more possessions and more plays so they will inherently have more yards per game than teams like Wisconsin and Stanford which try to milk the clock.
While it may be too much of an analytics thing for some on this board, Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings may be worth reviewing. His offensive rankings include things like stuff rate (number of rush plays which gain 0 or negative yards) and success rate (% of 1st down plays which achieve 50% of necessary yards for another 1st down, 2nd down plays which achieve 70% of necessary yards, 3rd down plays which achieve a 1st down). He also tries to adjust the statistics by pace of play so that it doesn't matter if a team is running a hurry-up like they're 2007 Oregon or if they're burning clock like Army's triple option against a major opponent.
While I don't defend Kelly, it's worth noting that he has had some offense which rank in the top 25 of offensive SP+ (but still not top 15). Last year's offense ranked 19th.
Not making the top 15 over a decades is just as damning
Last year, rated 26, was the first year since 2013 our offense was rated outside the top 25.
There weren't many top 15's, and I don't think the overall point is lost. It's just that under some objective measures, we've been consistently in the top 25.
buffoon who is way over his head against the elite teams and even against mediocre teams at times. For a man who thinks he is an offensive genius, he is anything but that. Offensive at times sure but be satisfied that we win 10 games 15 times in a row!
I don't think you summed it up well at all. Let me try to sum it up for you. Poor recruiting and development at QB and, to some extent, WR. Next, complicated route running (like learning Chinese mandarin as one defensive player said of BVG's offense), red zone issues and a scheme that lacks that a modern day touch that Saban successfully implemented (RPO's, etc). Kelly is the boss in the sense that "the buck stops here", but your response is rather vanilla and doesn't add much to the discussion on this topic.
Book is an overachiever, and that's great, but there have been far too many issues with development and putting together a clear and coherent plan for recruiting the right guys, teaching them the system, and then calling the correct plays when they get in there.
relates to over-reading the middle of the field. They've been coached so much about watching the safeties and the LBs dropping that they have been completely skittish about throwing into tight windows over the middle, to the point that many teams cheat outside because we arent going to test the middle.
As a result what we got from Book was look at your first read, if not wide open, take off running. Since he's a good athlete, that worked pretty well against most of our schedule. That will never cut it against elite teams.
where a safety or linebacker jumps a particular route (usually a slant, but whatever the offense shows as a hot). Also seemed to see a lot of robber and bandit looks where they will show either 2 and shift to 3 or 3 and shift to 2 post snap. They'd have LB running deep middle with bump and run coverage on the outside (basically some form of tampa 2).
Most teams don't have the elite athletes needed to do that but Bama and Clemson certainly do.
with the safeties and how it confuses our qb's since we seem to have (or had, not sure if it's changed) a lot of half-field reads.
This is nothing new.
Kelly would never hire an OC that didn't just run his garbage scheme.
The lackeys in the ND media might blame Long, Sanford, etc. for the struggles, but the one constant has been Kelly.
1. Crappy schedule--
ND doesn't pour it on after the game is in hand. We tend to tone it down. Problem is, there's never a big enough lead to get the 2nd/3rd team in to get reps. Offense stalls (on purpose). Shorter fields (because of a good defense) lowers total offensive yardage totals.
2. Predictable offense--
Bad teams can't overcome the athletes/talent ND has, so simple offense can score enough to win comfortably (see point #1). There's no urgency to make the offense more varied/unpredictable since it's good enough 10 out of 12 games. The losses (against great teams) are explained away with "we didn't make plays".
3. No QB "development"--
QBs never develop (I forget who made the point that the QBs don't regress. There's more tape on them as the season goes on, and into year 2 to the better teams can take away the few things the QB does well). Goes back to point #2. QBs don't grow because the offense is stagnant, and don't want to take more chances to make the throws they should.
4. Short WR bench--
Back to point #3. Few excellent receivers (or even very good) make it less likely the QBs will want to make the throws they should. No WR production means less attention to them and more to the rest of the offense--more bodies to take away TE routes, support in run game, etc.
You've known the problems for 10 years. They haven't changed.
52-20 vs. Navy, 52-17 vs. Miami (OH), 56-27 vs. Wake, 49-16 vs. Temple. And those are just in the last four seasons.
We lay it on plenty thick when we play overmatched squads. That's not why we can't crack the Top-25 in offense.
We play enough overmatched squads each year to move the average. We don't.
You're leaving out the other part of my post about games against better teams. 180 yds & 302 yds against Michigan in 2019 & 2018. 248 yds against Clemson 2018. 261 against Miami (followed by 327 against Navy) in 2017.
No comment on the other points of my post?
I interpreted your post to mean that the #1 reason we can't crack the Top 25 is that we don't pour it on against teams when the game is "in hand". To your point about our performance against good teams, that tends to happen only when we play awful teams. And, over the last four years, we've poured it on plenty (unless you're looking for 70+ point performances against those teams).
It's not about the schedule. Ole Miss went 4-5 against 9 SEC defenses last year and finished #3 in offense. Unlike Brian Kelly, Lane Kiffin actually knows how to coach an offense.
Bama finished #4 in offense. Florida finished #9. Both teams played tougher schedules than we did. The difference? Coaching.
It's always coaching.
I think, other than scheduling, the common thread of my points was coaching.
That offense was his specialty…high powered…fast scoring?
These are last year's top 10 offenses (total offense) and their corresponding total defense rankings:
Kent State 80
UCF 123
Mississippi 126
Alabama 32
North Carolina 58
BYU 11
Ohio State 59
North Texas 127
Florida 83
Clemson 15
I am fine with our offense being around 20 - 40 range as long as:
1.) It's paired with a defense that keeps other teams from scoring
2.) It stays effective against elite competition
ranking. That’s even worse.
I’m guessing scoring offense will be somewhere in between.
Which puts some lipstick on our cave pig of an offense.
I know it's the offseason, but we've done like 10 years worth of threads on it.
issue. Running the ball is not the issue. What about the scheme is the issue?
Saban, after trying to get them banned, has embraced RPOs with his own flavor.
Coming at this from a 'you can't fix it if you don't know its broken' position...
I recall Kelly's offense struggling to find consistent success on the ground both in short yardage situations and against marquee opponents. Since, well, pretty much ever.
Its improved in recent years, but remains nowhere near elite, let alone consistently good. I don't have time to do a broad analysis, but picked 4 recent losses to marquee opponents as examples. Call it a cherry picking fallacy if you want, I don't care.
Kelly's offense can't run ball when it must. Its why they have nothing to hang their hat on, and why it so often looks like grab-bagging. This what I think of when people say the scheme sucks or the philosophy sucks.
2021 Rose Bowl ATT YDS AVE TD
Alabama 25 140 5.6 0
ND 38 139 3.7 2
2020 ACC Champ
Clem 27 219 8.1 2
ND 30 44 1.5 1
ND w/o Book 20 79 3.9 1
2019 Michigan
UM 57 303 5.3 3
ND 31 47 1.5 0
2019 Georgia
UGA 33 152 4.6 1
ND 14 46 3.3 0
There are about seventy different variations on what a "spread" offense means.
In Kelly's particular version, the only thing "spread" about it is that we generally have a lot of pass catchers on the field.
The running game is too soft/indirect/predictable, the route tree and specific reads too complicated, the development of the QB non-existent, the play mix too one dimensional especially in crunch time.
All of this is covered up by a combination of superior talent and a weakened schedule in the last decade or so, but also amplified against any and every legitimate opponent Kelly has come across.
jt would have to chime in more specifically.
s are aligned with non-existent QB development.
Running the ball has been a big problem against quality defenses.
With our sideways passing game, there is absolutely no reason to cover the middle of the field.
Running against quality defenses.
explained to you that Notre Dame and Alabama do not run the same scheme? What could I possibly add to convince you?
Even if they did run the same scheme, and they don't, why would it matter? One is wildly successful at it and the other, in your words, has only "remarkable non-achievement" to its name. In 10 years we haven't been in the top 25 in total offense. Alabama's been 6th or better the last three seasons. Even if only talent explains that, what's the brief that Kelly is maximizing talent? Or recruiting well?
If the problem is the scheme, which seems to be the general conclusion.
Then what specifically, not generally or “quippy”, is the difference?
How hard is this?
Yes, I'm joking
exactly what we're not going to fix.
I recall their high vaunted DL saying they didn't expect our OL to hit that hard.
In the middle of practice Coach Moore huddled with Coach Holtz...and then exploded. “Get me the managers! Get these f*cking visors off these f*cking helmets! We don’t need this bullsh*t! We’re going to look them right in the eye, tell them where we’re running the ball, and kick their f*cking asses all over the f*cking field!”