Why does it take so long for wide receivers to develop in
by SEE (2021-05-16 15:40:25)

This offense?

It’s just odd.


"Market Share" of Receiving Yards to Underclassmen
by ndzippy  (2021-05-17 15:59:47)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

This research was spurred by another comment below, but I figured it was worth sharing it as a separate point.

I went through last year's Top 10 teams and calculated each team's share of WR catches & receiving yards that went to sophomore and freshmen WRs (per Sports Reference's 2020 rosters). Here's what I found:

1. Alabama: 37% of catches, 33% of yards
2. Ohio State: 58%, 55%
3. Clemson: 35%, 32%
4. Texas A&M: 75%, 81%
5. Notre Dame: 0%, 0% (not a typo)
6. Oklahoma: 73%, 77%
7. Georgia: 88%, 92%
8. Cincinnati: 22%, 20%
9: Iowa State: 26%, 26%
10: Northwestern: 12%, 11%

Weighted average, excluding ND: 45%, 45%
Notre Dame (again): 0%, 0%

One other thing that stands out about the list above is that the truly elite programs got more production out of younger players than the "scrappy" squads (Cincy, Iowa State, Northwestern). I guess that makes sense, considering blue-chip programs tend to bring in guys that are ready to play early on, while scrappier programs tend to need more time to develop their players. This makes ND's numbers look even more out of place.

This is, and has long been, a big issue for Brian Kelly.


The Ball State game is the type of game where Kelly's
by Irishdog80  (2021-05-17 12:46:34)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

rigidity about his offense and player hierarchy caused problems. Anyone that has seen a 4 star athlete line up against 2 star guys knows the advantage to the 4 star guy is huge and easily exploited. Notre Dame's talent advantage should have created mismatches all over the field...think Javon McKinley running wild and free against Bowling Green. Instead, the Irish struggled all game...and it wasn't just due to Wimbush's issues--that's another topic altogether. All it takes is for your Offensive Coordinator and Head Coach to identify the weak links on the other team...for Ball State, there were many... and let your athletes play.


I believe it has something to do with Kelly's overly -
by 84david  (2021-05-17 08:28:28)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

complicated route tree. Each of the three different WR positions has up to 20 different routes they need to master plus being able recognize differences between man and zone and adjusting their routes accordingly. And of course, they have to demonstrate the ability to block on running plays. Thats probably too much to absorb from a kid right out of high school.

Lou was smart enough to know that he needed to get his super-athletes on the field ASAP (e.g. Rocket). He simplified things for the frosh by only requiring them to know a couple of routes and got them on the field running fly routes or short screens. None of this triple-move dig route behind the LBs BS. Just let the other team chase your young athletes down the field.













And if the offense was great, then I could see the tradeoff
by SEE  (2021-05-17 09:58:12)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

it isn't


It's all about the system, man. The precious system.
by SWPaDem  (2021-05-17 07:24:29)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Moose outside should have told you to get used to it.


And just guessing, but
by NDTommie  (2021-05-16 20:13:24)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

If you looked at 4* and 5* production as freshmen across all positions, I think it would be a safe bet to say WR would be at the top of that list.

Clemson, Bama, OU, OSU... all get elite WR talent on the field right away (even if the position group is already loaded).


Really only if they have 1st or 2nd round talent
by StetsonDan  (2021-05-17 09:22:14)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Here's a quick look at production by true freshman blue chip (4 or 5* on 247 Composite) WRs at the schools you mentioned. Looking at the stats, unless the WR developed into an eventual 1st or 2nd round pick (or look to be one in the future with Justyn Ross of Clemson, Chris Olave of Ohio St, Garrett Wilson of Ohio St, and Marvin Mims of Oklahoma), they were not really involved as a true freshman.

Clemson and Oklahoma did a better job than Alabama and Ohio St; Clemson especially.

Looking at all four schools, I noticed that blue chippers seemed to get more involved as sophomores.

To my eyes, ND has two separate issues: lack of blue chip WRs and (probably related to the first issue) the inability to involve blue chip WRs in the offense.

Sorry for the poor formatting.

Alabama:
2017: (3 1st round picks!)
Jerry Jeudy [1st round] 14 catches for 264 yards and 2 TDs
DeVonta Smith [1st round] 8 catches for 160 yards and 3 TDs
Henry Ruggs [1st round] 12 catches for 229 yards
Tyrell Shavers 0 catches
2018:
Jaylen Waddle [1st round] 45 catches for 848 yards and 7 TDs
Xavier Williams 0 catches
2019:
John Metchie 4 catches for 23 yards
2020:
Thaiu Jones-Bell 1 catch for -2 yards
Javon Baker 2 catches for 15 yards
Traeshon Holden 0 catches


Clemson:
2017:
Tee Higgins [2nd round] 17 catches for 345 yards and 2 TDs
Amari Rodgers [3rd round] 19 catches for 123 yards
2018:
Justyn Ross 46 catches for 1000 yards and 9 TDs
2019:
Frank Ladson 9 catches for 128 yards and 3 TDs
Joe Ngata 17 catches for 240 yardds and 3 TDs
2020:
EJ Williams 24 catches for 306 yards and 2 TDs


Ohio State:
2017:
Trevon Grimes [undrafted] 3 catches for 20 yards (transferred to Florida)
Jaylen Harris 2 catches for 27 yards
2018:
Kamryn Babb 0 catches
Cameron Brown 0 catches
Chris Olave 12 catches for 197 yards and 3 TDs
2019:
Garrett Wilson 30 catches for 432 yards and 5 TDs
Jameson Williams 6 catches for 112 yards and 1 TD
2020:
Julian Fleming 7 catches for 74 yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 10 catches for 49 yards and 1 TD
Gee Scott, Jr 0 catches
Mookie Cooper 0 catches

Oklahoma:
2017:
CeeDee Lamb [1st round] 46 catches for 807 yards and 7 TDs
Charleston Rambo 0 catches (grad transfer to Miami this year)
2019 (none in '18):
Jadon Haselwood 19 catches for 272 yards and 1 TD
Theo Wease 8 catches for 136 yards and 2 TDs
Trejan Bridges 7 catches for 82 yards and 2 TDs
2020:
Marvin Mims 37 catches for 610 yards and 9 TDs


Notre Dame
2017: None
2018:
Kevin Austin 5 catches for 90 yards (career: 6 catches for 108 yards...I originally listed him as transferred, but got him confused with Kevin Stepherson)
Braden Lenzy 0 catches (career: 18 catches for 317 yards and 3 TDs)
Lawrence Keys 0 catches (career: 18 catches for 185 yards)
Micah Jones 0 catches (transferred without a catch)
2019: None
2020:
Jordan Johnson 0 catches (transferred without a catch)


You'd think it would be the opposite
by OH_TEN  (2021-05-17 16:22:06)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

You said:

"To my eyes, ND has two separate issues: lack of blue chip WRs and (probably related to the first issue) the inability to involve blue chip WRs in the offense."

I agree we have both issues, but I would think, all else equal, the two issues would be inversely related.

If you have a dearth of 4 and 5 star talent at a particular position, it would be easier, not harder, to get the blue chip talent you do have involved in the offense.

I can see why it might be difficult for Saban to involve Thaiu Jones-Bell, Javon Baker and Traeshon Holden involved when DaVonta Smith, John Metchie, Jaylen Waddle and Slade Bolden are all getting dozens of catches and hundreds of yards. It is tougher to understand why Kelly couldn't involve Jordan Johnson more when Javon McKinley, Ben Skowronek (a grad transfer) and Avery Davis (a converted QB turned RB/WR turned DB turned WR again) were the leading WRs -- and everyone else in the top 7 is either a TE or RB.


Nice post. Still, ND is objectively worst on the list...
by ndzippy  (2021-05-17 13:09:09)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

And you're looking only at teams at the top of the mountain (teams loaded with talent, which makes it harder for freshmen to break through even if they know the offense cold).

Here's a look at this past year's leading receivers & how they performed as freshmen:

- Davonte Smith: 8 catches / 160 yards / 3 TDs
- Elijah Moore: 36 / 398 / 2
- Jaelon Darden: 32 / 281 / 3
- Dax Milne: 10 / 69 / 1
- Jonathan Adams Jr.: 8 / 77 / 1
- Dyami Brown: 17 / 173 / 1
- Jalen Tolbert: 5 / 60 / 0
- Calvin Austin III: 2 / 24 / 0
- Marlon Williams: 17 / 270 / 2
- Amari Rodgers: 19 / 123 / 0

- Averages: 15 / 165 / 1

Compare that to the studs we've had (focused on guys with NFL talent):

- Miles Boykin: 0 / 0 / 0
- Chase Claypool: 5 / 81 / 0
- Will Fuller: 6 / 160 / 1
- EQ St. Brown: 1 / 8 / 0
- Torii Hunter, Jr.: 0 / 0 / 0
- Chris Brown: 2 / 56 / 0
- Davaris Daniels: 0 / 0 / 0

- Average: 2 / 44 / 0


A few more (which help Kelly)
by StetsonDan  (2021-05-17 13:35:33)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

TJ Jones [4*]: 23 rec for 306 yards, 3 TDs
Corey Robinson [3*]: 9 catches for 157 yards, 1 TD
Kevin Stepherson (as noted below) [3*]: 25 catches for 462 yards, 5 TDs


None of this is to defend Kelly. I think he needs to simplify to let talent on the field even if it's in a limited capacity. Poster in this thread rightly point out that Weis put in Golden Tate for a few plays every game just to run either go routes or WR screens. If a guy has talent, there's no reason why we can't include him for a few plays each game even if it is as an obvious gadget (like when Cordarrelle Patterson is in for the Bears or when we used Lenzy in '19).

Still, even more successful teams have this issue. Ohio St seemed to have an issue getting Julian Fleming and Jaxon Smith-Njigba involved last year when both were 5* players, although this could also be scheme-related. If I remember correctly, the Ohio St offense has a lot of WR option routes which vary based on zone/man, alignment, and whether the defensive back is in press coverage; this sounds similar to what 84David described above as what ND demands out of its WRs.


Those names work against your point, though
by ndzippy  (2021-05-17 15:10:51)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I thought your point was that the only receivers who put up big numbers as freshmen (at least at Bama, Clemson, OSU, etc.) have Round 1/Round 2 NFL talent.

I went through players at ND who had/have legit NFL talent to see how we compared. I guess I should have caught TJ Jones, who played in the league (honestly, I thought his first year was under Weis). I don't believe Robinson or Stepherson were ever seen as "NFL-caliber".

I guess my point is that a lot of factors go into getting good production out of freshmen: talent, ability to learn the offense, depth chart needs, etc. The issue with Kelly is that we've been bringing in highly-rated players (check the talent box), and we've needed more production out of the position (check the depth chart needs box), and, still...we never seem to get much of anything out of the youngsters.

I also think we need to expand the conversation beyond freshmen. Here is the percentage of WR yards that went to freshmen & sophomore WRs at the schools you referenced:

- Alabama: 37% of catches / 33% of yards
- Clemson: 35% / 32%
- Ohio State: 58% / 55%
- Oklahoma: 73% / 77%
- Notre Dame: 0% / 0% (not a typo)

This is, and has long been, a huge problem for Brian Kelly.


I think you are underrating Stepherson. *
by Slotts  (2021-05-17 20:13:29)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


That stat should be Question #1 in next press conference
by StetsonDan  (2021-05-17 15:57:05)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

That stat is damning both in Kelly/Alexander's inability to recruit top level receiving talent and to utilize any wide receivers until they're upperclassmen.

I limited my numbers to the past 4 years because I had to pick some sort of arbitrary cutoff, that lines up with Kelly 2.0 [or whatever version], and the game seems like's it's tilted even more towards offense since Saban has embraced the spread.

You're right that listing Jones/Robinson/Stepherson's stats cuts against my argument that you need to have legit NFL talent to contribute as a true freshman, but I think those may be off for a few reasons. First, all three had their freshman season in a season that could be considered the bottom half of Kelly's career at ND (Jones: 8-5 in '10; Robinson: 9-4 in '13; and Stepherson: 4-8 in '16).

In looking at those three, Robinson was probably the most prepared from a "traits" standpoint of any player in the Kelly era which explains why he was able to step in and play right away. As far as Stepherson, it's hard to look past his knuckleheadedness, but the coaches raved about his talent (see this tweet from Pete Sampson)


Stepherson had 19, 359 and 5 TDs as a frosh...
by Slotts  (2021-05-17 12:55:36)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

also had 5 rushes for 76 yards.


Those are his sophomore stats. His frosh stats were better.
by ndzippy  (2021-05-17 13:11:19)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

25 catches, 452 yards, 5 TDs.

Still, under Brian Kelly, Stepherson is an outlier.


My mistake. I thought '17 was his freshman year. *
by Slotts  (2021-05-17 13:30:22)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


yep, excellent post. Thanks for putting the work in. *
by MrE  (2021-05-17 11:50:25)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


This might be part of the answer
by NDQuebec  (2021-05-16 18:51:59)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I think the author has a valid point. Demands on the WR position at Notre Dame seem unusually high compared to other top schools. I forgot which player on defence said learning the system was like learning Chinese Manderin during the Van Gorder years. According to the article (and Brian Driskell at SI Irish breakdown) the same situation appears to be the case at wide receiver in the last few years. BTW, we have not heard much with respect to Xavier Watts this spring either. I hope he doesn't become another Jordan Johnson


Watts battled some injury issues this spring
by Jvan  (2021-05-16 21:52:38)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

That said, he’s a guy that can and should play this season. If not, he may follow Jordan Johnson out the door.


It's all or nothing in learning the offense
by Jvan  (2021-05-16 16:16:36)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Kelly doesn't have a limited package for young receivers to get them onto the field early. You don't see them until they know all the plays, routes, variants and reads.


“Go deep. I’ll hit you at the blue Chevy. On 2.”
by IAND75  (2021-05-17 23:26:01)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

It’s not rocket surgery.


It’s too bad
by carroll2005  (2021-05-16 18:54:54)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Even in the midst of the dismal 2007 season, Weis was able to figure out that getting Golden Tate on the field and letting him loose was a good idea


Because everyone should have to know a pedestrian offense
by SEE  (2021-05-16 18:32:24)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Inside and out


Traits *
by chsfb75  (2021-05-16 16:13:45)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post