Adding in some other games for context. (If you're going to include Miami and Michigan, then other games of similar import should be included as well)
2020 Clemson (reg season): ND 13, Clem 6
2019 UGA: ND 10, UGA 7
2018 Michigan: ND 7, UM 10
2018 Stanford: ND 7, Stanford 7
2017 UGA: ND 10, UGA 7
2017 USC: ND 14, USC 0
2017 NCSU: ND 14, NCSU 7
2017 LSU: ND 3, LSU 0
2015 Clemson: ND 0, Clemson 0
2015 Ohio State: ND 14, OSU 14
2015 Stanford: ND 13, Stanford 7
2014 FSU: ND 10, FSU 3
2014 ASU: ND 7, ASU 17
2013 Michigan: ND 6, UM 17
2013 Oklahoma: ND 0, OU 7
2013 Stanford: ND 3, Stanford 7
2012 Michigan: ND 10, UM 0
2012 Oklahoma: ND 3, OU 3
I think it's fair to say that if we're not competitive in the second quarter, it's a clear sign that we'll be outclassed that day. Generally, if we're competitive in the second quarter, it will end up a competitive game.
We generally haven't gotten run off the field late. I can only think of two games where that's happened. One was Stanford 2017, where it was a close game until a brief stretch at the start of the 4th quarter with multiple turnovers led to a blowout. The other was ASU 2014, where we scored 28 in a row to pull within 3 points with 6:37 to go in the game, and gave up 21 points the rest of the way to lose in a blowout.