Playing some devil's advocate here - the list has 82 with offers from private schools or UVA and exactly 3 of them committed to one of those schools (all ND), it suggests that very few top 100 recruits are interested enough in a private school education for it to be a deciding factor, or that ultimately they don't really qualify. Based on nothing it all I suspect it is some of both.

Objectively it’s a list of 100 kids being used to support the premise that academics don’t aren’t a factor in recruiting. Yet, Aside from the 3 going to ND, not a single one is going to a private school or UVA. I made no conclusion, only pointed out that it doesn’t support the premise you are trying to prove. What do you conclude?

their football aspirations. ND under Holtz was one of those schools. Academics does not preclude that. It’s an excuse for the lazy.

That’s what I conclude.

ND's peer group is Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama et al. - where the Top 100 elect to play football.

ND's peer group is not Vandy, Stanford, Duke, et al. - where the Top 100 elect not to play football.

That kids choose based on their football aspirations is obvious. No one has ever argued that. The list supports that, not much more. To the coldly analytical this list says nothing about how academics factors in, only that it would appear that all 100 are eligible.

My biggest takeaway from this list that the best players are from California, Texas, or the south. My other takeaway is that the top schools kids are picking are west coast, Texas/Oklahoma and the south. Seems like those two things could be related. The list doesn’t prove it.

I don’t think kids exactly dream of playing for BK or in his offense but I also don’t think a lot of those kids in the top 100 care much about academics. I’d go so far as to say that any kids who picks Oklahoma does not.

Among data scientists, physicians, and psychologists, the term for your bias is called “confirmation” bias.

It provides a valid data point to something many of us have believed to be true. I'd add the premise that we're not overly limited in pursuit of elite recruits is especially valid since the 2016 season when Swarbrick and Kelly overhauled the program and spent millions on Crossroads and other more football-specific perks. There are still some tight fits in the Admissions process, but very few players that Kelly can get to say 'Yes' now are turned away. He just needs to get more of them.

Seriously, that fatass was a grinder. If he had the record BK had at this point, we'd be churning out top 5 classes.

Particularly in recruiting. There have been numerous stories in which coveted recruits have commented about how rarely (if ever) Kelly reached out.

Weis was a lousy coach, but he worked his ass off at recruiting. Kelly coasts by comparison. He just isn't as hungry as Swinney, Meyer, or Saban. But I bet the only thing Nick Saban hates more than kissing the ass of some 17-year-old prima donna is losing.

...but none of them were ever as hungry as Weis.

I like the maths

The covid issues of this year preventing more visits. Yes, I'm aware this affected every school, but in this case it hurts ND far more. Recruits are further away from South Bend, preventing drive-by stop-in visits during the pandemic. On top of that, our visits sell recruits more than going to most campuses. You really have to see ND up close to understand its allure.

If you believe the ISD guys, we likely would've landed 4-6 more elite recruits this year and might have had a top 5 class if not for covid preventing visits.

Lots of kids visit ND and don't commit to ND. I don't think ND's official visit hit rate on kids is any higher than other powers.

I do think ND getting kids on campus may be more impactful for kids to determine if ND is a fit or not. I would imagine there are an equal number of kids who visit who realize ND is not what they're looking for in a school.

So net-net, I don't believe official visits would have resulted in us landing more players, but I do believe it could have an impact on kids maybe transferring down the road because they liked the idea of ND more than the campus and environment.

Yes, players visit ND and do not choose to come. The other side of that equation regarding players (especially elite ones) has two elements. First is that ND has virtually no shot at a recruit who doesn’t visit. Second is that such visits usually require an airplane ride or long car trip. These didn’t happen in 2020.

ND also does a lot more for recruits when they visit than just talk football. They show them the academic and student life aspects in some detail, while managing to dispel the negative notions that other coaches have put in their heads about ND. They open the eyes of a lot of kids and also get to determine which ones are cultural fits. Not having that ability this year definitely cost them. One casualty was Will Shipley but there were others as well.

Georgia, New Jersey, California, Florida, Hawaii, California again, Florida again, Georgia again, Georgia again, California again, Tennessee, California again, Maryland, Rhode Island among them.

Seems like out-of-area kids flocked to sign with ND.

The Zoom calls helped in some cases, but they could not cover the full range of academic and social interaction that helps sell recruits and their families, especially from distant locations. We definitely lost out on a few kids this way, whether you choose to believe it or not.

They had over 70 players finish the semester with a 3.0 or above this year. Marginal students are often marginal in other aspects of their lives and Dabo demands excellence of his players across the board. Now are they studying rocket science? No - most of them are communications majors, so it may be easier to graduate from Clemson than from ND - but I’m sure the degree of difficulty is up to the players at either school.

As someone who has a relative very close to the NFL, you realize that the large majority of guys playing professional football are talented, but moreso, are extremely hard working and motivated. That's likely true in any profession. I find the attitude from many in the ND fanbase that top recruits are "lazy" and "looking for the easy path" frankly disgusting. It assumes top recruits are where they are simply based on genetics which undercuts how much work they have put in to get where they are.

It is true that the coursework, majors, etc. at the football powers are a sham. However, a lot of the guys in the NFL are incredibly determined and putting in the work in the classroom is not that much of a deterrent IF their on the field development at School ABC will help them get to the league.

A lot of players get drafted based on talent and measurables in a physical sense, but they will wash out of the league in short order if they don’t have the right work ethic and are not solid citizens. This is more true today than a generation ago.

In the last 3 recruiting classes, ND has signed 2, 4, 4 (10 total, or 3.3 avg).

If I am the VP of Recruiting at ND, and our stated goal is to win the national championship, I need to have my recruiters land X many Top 100 players. Is that 7 per year? 8? Maybe more considering the close rate and available market for Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, et al?

If the available market to ND is 82, then the current close rate is 4%.

I need recruiters that can close 8% to 10%, at a minimum, I'd think.

The problems I need to articulate to the VP of Excellent Coaching and Results are a combination of:

1) My guys aren't rainmakers, they're comprised of guys the VP of EC&R likes and industry reps that weren't rainmakers when they were selling for our competitors.

2) My guys aren't being properly mentored, trained/developed to be better closers by our leaders.

3) Our incentives and measurements are not appropriately aligned to increase success on closing new business. There are no quotas/expectations, and no variable compensation incentives based on performance.

My sources are two people who worked in the athletic department in the late 80s and the 00s. They think it's likely 75-85% at this point of the top players who could qualify. It's quite simply not much of a reason for subpar recruiting anymore, and yet people still trot it out.

Our academics at this point are far more an asset in recruiting than a handicap.