My reasoning
by NDFanSince81 (2020-07-10 18:55:39)

In reply to: Explain me why you think  posted by Catdog2


1. Wisconsin is already gone from the schedule, there's good chance USC and Stanford will be lost, too. This limits the the upside opportunities for national contention. Clemson is left, but the remaining games have limited national interest.

2. Can a student body spread out through the stadium generate the atmosphere a casual viewer expects in college football? Especially for opponents like Western Michigan, Wake Forest. I'll grant you Clemson could still be a lot of fun, if we are competitive.

3. What rules will be in place during the game to reduce virus transmission? To me, this is the real wildcard. Rules could suck the life right out of the game.

4. I did some numbers on using the current rate of new cases in the US (160/1m/day) for a 120 day practice + schedule period. It works out to an expectation of 2 cases per team per season. If current experience with summer practices and military training is any guide, an infection would rapidly spread throughout the team. So unless the programs are on total lockdown, you can expect most teams will have to fight back one or more outbreaks during the course of the season. On that basis, I'd be surprised if there were no forfeited games over the course of a 10 game season.

5. The consequence of 4 is that conference standings, rankings, and the prospects of post-season play would have little value, again cutting into the interest of the casual fan.

That's my reasoning. Feel free to debunk if you like.