the hire. Don't get me wrong, it was a great hire for UM. And it will certainly make them competitive very quickly. I doubt it will change UM's recruiting that much. UM's biggest issue wasn't talent but coaching which this corrects. Further, UM and OSU can go after more recruits that ND because of ND's stricter academic entry requirements. His hiring won't change that.
Here is why I think he won't be there in 2017 or later:
1) the longest he's been anywhere in his entire coaching/player career was in Chicago for 7 years as QB. Otherwise, as a coach he's longest tenure is 4 years. He has the personalty that grates on people. He just is a complete a-hole and that wears on people.
2) He wants to win a Super Bowl. He can't do that from Ann Arbor. UM is merely a detour in that goal. Given his competitive nature, you don't think it drives him nuts that his brother has a SB and he doesn't.
3) The options for NFL coaching vacancies wasn't ideal in this cycle. Raiders are a mess, Chicago is okay but still have to deal with McKaskey (sic). The Jets are the Jets. The biggest report is that his wife likes warm weather/bay area type. To me, Miami might be looking next year. Plus, the issue of the NFL interview process made it likely that UM told him make a decision on Monday or no deal. Bird in the hand (UM) is worth two in the bush (some NFL team).
4) Reports are that he doesn't like the glad hand bs that York wanted him to do to raise funds for the new stadium in Santa Clara. He can get away with not doing any of the kissing baby crap at Stanford but UM that is a prerequiste.
5) Supposedly, one of reasons Rich-Rod failed was because UM wouldn't pay his assistants top dollar. That was allegedly corrected under Hoke. Well, the more money that goes to Harbaugh means less that goes to his assistants. He'll still get good quality assistants but maybe not the top guys.
6) The issue for most is what happens with Kelly vis-a-vis Harbaugh. Whatever happens with Kelly will be determined next year in 2015. Harbaugh will have no impact on it. He either makes it or doesn't and ND will be looking for a new HC in 2015/16. Harbaugh was never going to come to ND (even though he is Catholic) so where he goes makes little impact on my view regarding Kelly. So why sweat where Harbaugh is going beyond how much money he makes which will impact what ND needs to pay their next coach. It is what it is.