So, if we assume a best case of 15-16 from here on
by ndgotrobbedin97 (2017-03-26 22:50:11)
Edited on 2017-03-26 22:55:17

That would put the season record at 22-31. That's giving ND most of the weekday games as wins (stretch?), a series win over Austin Peay, and (I think) fairly assessing the conference games with series wins assumed over NC State, BC, Duke.

That equates to a change in coaching staff, correct? Obviously it can get a lot worse than this, as nothing so far screams a winning percentage of .500.


You are an optimist, I see :)
by TerryD  (2017-03-27 09:10:54)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

My guess:

10-21


If the record is 15-18, we'd break the school record
by ShermanOaksND  (2017-03-27 00:55:49)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

for most losses in a season -- 22-32 in 2010, which got Schrage fired and Aoki hired.

If the record is 13-20, it would drop Aoki's overall record at ND below .500. He's currently 181-176-1, third-worst WP in school history.

And if the record is 11-22, we'd finish 18-37, giving us the worst winning percentage in school history, currently held by the 1987 team (15-29), which got Gallo fired. We would finish 11-22 if we maintained our current .222 winning percentage in ACC play (giving us a 5-16 record in remaining ACC games) and managed a 6-6 mark in our remaining OOC games.

(We have 33 games left on the schedule, not 31, and there's the possibility of a makeup game for this week's postponement against Toledo.)

We seem certain of finishing below .500. To avoid that fate, we'd need to go 21-12 the rest of the way, which seems like a pipe dream. A losing record would give Aoki 3 in 7 years, plus a .500 season. By comparison, Schrage had one losing record -- his final season -- out of 4, plus a .500 season.


Of course, you know the excuse you'll be given
by ndgotrobbedin97  (2017-03-27 08:58:22)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

(By the way, I counted Toledo as a makeup date was given, but must have missed the others after a couple late night cocktails)

The excuse will be that the ACC is loaded, so the bar for success has been moved. of course, this would completely ignore the ugly losses in non-conference---St. Louis, Lafayette (!), UMass-Lowell (this isn't hockey we're talking about, right?). This also ignores the fact that they get to play Duke, BC, Pitt, NC State, GA Tech....none of which are setting the world on fire this season.

I think a consideration of BC's success last year (regional finals), and then a return to their historical norm this season is interesting to note. I think many programs out there can put together a group to win some games in one season, but it does not indicate a "program" has been built for the long haul. ND has made it to the NCAA's under Aoki, but the other 6 seasons tell a much different tale.

You need to see more than a 1 year blip, because 1 out of 7 is just that---a statistical blip. But, Swarbrick saw something different. He ignored things like losing 5 of 7---all at home---late in the season to EMU, Ohio U and Pitt.....7 of 9 if you include the 2 subsequent losses to LSU after those. He ignored the 3-12 finish to the season (12 of those at home), so it's not as though he can claim it just took a while to get it going. Instead, it was an epic collapse.

The information you post is damning, but I don't think any of us would be shocked if Swarbrick arrogantly hangs on to his guy. Hell, he probably won't even make public statements after the season---again.


Lafayette is 2-22 *
by Cy49  (2017-03-27 10:29:06)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


To be fair, their losing streak is only at 14 games
by ndgotrobbedin97  (2017-03-27 12:36:14)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

And, they only lost 3 games to baseball power Georgetown by scores of 10-4, 14-7 and 13-6. Very competitive.


Even if Swarbrick were to make a move
by garbageplate  (2017-03-27 09:28:22)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

He'll probably fuck up the replacement hire.


If keeping Aoki for one more season means no Swarby,
by OITLinebacker  (2017-03-28 10:40:52)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I'll take it. I don't trust Swarbrick to hire the replacement here, he'll just screw it up and hamstring the next AD who will have to wait a few years to fire Sawbucks' screwup.


Agreed *
by garbageplate  (2017-04-16 12:49:43)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post